What To Watch For In Pfizer’s 1Q20 Earnings Tomorrow

The analyst anticipates 1Q 2020 sales of $11.62B (vs. consensus at $11.17B per Factset) and EPS of $0.72 (vs. consensus at $0.70), with estimates for pneumonia vaccine Prevnar slightly above consensus and estimates for breast cancer drug Ibrance slightly below. He assumes the Upjohn deal will close on September 30 and consequently estimates FY 2020 sales of $47.05B and EPS of $2.68.

“We assume sales in the quarter will be boosted for the company’s vaccines business (due to increased Prevnar sales) and the company’s hospital business (due to increased sterile injectible sales)” says Divan.

However sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax could be pressured by the pandemic, Divan adds, given it is relatively early in its launch and potential new patients are unlikely to be seeing physicians right now.

Beyond the quarterly results, the Mizuho analyst is also hoping for further color on the impact of Covid 19 on specific products and geographies; Pfizer’s expectations on the pace of recovery and economic fallout; and updates on timeline for key clinical trials.

Ultimately, the analyst continues to like the Pfizer story as it evolves to a “New Pfizer” purely focused on its innovative biopharma business, but he notes that the delay in the Upjohn sale has pushed out this transition.

Indeed, analysts are evenly divided between hold and buy when it comes to Pfizer stock; hence its Moderate Buy consensus on TipRanks. With shares trading down 4.5% year-to-date, the average analyst price target indicates 11% upside potential from current levels. (See PFE stock analysis on TipRanks).

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