MongoDB Earnings Preview: Analysts Looking For Beat, Raise Quarter


Database specialist MongoDB (MDB) will issue 1QFY21 results after the market close this Thursday, and analysts have a bullish outlook on the stock heading into the print.

On June 2, Barclays’ Raimo Lenschow ramped up his MongoDB price target by 111% to $275 from $130 and reiterated his buy rating. He believes that estimates are sufficiently conservative that a “beat and raise” quarter is now likely. Long-term, the analyst praises the stock’s “scarcity value” and says shares are attractive at current levels- though given the recent rally he is not predicting a significant leap post-print.

Also on June 2, five-star Needham analyst Jack Andrews reiterated his MDB buy rating, took his price target from $170 to $253, and upped his earnings estimates. Specifically, the analyst is now looking revenue and EPS to come in above consensus, with 1QFY21 revenue up 36.8% year-over-year to $122.3 million, vs consensus of $119.5 million. His EPS estimate of $(0.22) is ahead of the consensus of $(0.25).

“We believe MDB is leveraged to strategic spend around digital transformations, which are accelerating in some cases, particularly as vendors and customers are gravitating more to self-serve, go-to-market motions due to the remote working environment” he explained.

Moreover, Andrews’ updated bottoms-up gauge of developer activity suggests a record increase in developer interest. The analyst scraped StackOverflow and built a proprietary database of activity- which saw an increase of 58% YoY for 1QFY21 and 30.6% for the TTM (trailing twelve months), which represents the biggest increase in 7.5 years.

Further checks indicate that MDB continues to aggressively hire, says the Needham analyst, which he takes as a sign of management confidence. Notably, Michael Gordon, MDB COO and CFO, commented in mid-May that: “even in these challenging times, organizations are looking to modernize their technology infrastructure. In some cases, this need is now more acute than ever. So, we are continuing to hire great talent.”

Citigroup’s Tyler Radke also significantly boosted his price target from $175 to $275 on May 28. Overall, however, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus, with 7 recent buy ratings vs 3 hold ratings. Shares in MongoDB have already exploded over 80% year-to-date, and as a result the average analyst price target now indicates downside potential of 20%. (See MDB stock analysis on TipRanks).

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