Elastic Falls 7% Post-Print; Top Analyst Sees Multiple Growth Levers Ahead


Shares in Elastic NV (ESTC) fell 7% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the company reported strong fiscal fourth quarter results, but disappointed with weak guidance.

Specifically, Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.12 beat consensus estimates by $0.19 while GAAP EPS of -$0.38 came in $0.15 above expectations. Revenue of $123.62M surged 53.4% year-over-year thanks to better execution and broad product traction, and beat Street estimates by $6.47M.

However, FY21 guidance was below consensus taking into account expected (not yet witnessed) macro headwinds. Total revenue is expected to be between $530 million and $540 million (vs consensus of $561.3M), with non-GAAP operating margin between -15% and -13%. Non-GAAP net loss per share is now guided at $0.98 and $0.85 (vs. -$1.32 expected).

“We believe it is prudent to expect some near-term business headwinds as the economic impact from the COVID-19 situation further unfolds. As such, our guidance includes the expected impact of COVID‑19 on our business and results of operations based on information available to us today” the company explained.

Following the report, five-star Oppenheimer analyst Ittai Kidron reiterated his ESTC buy rating while ramping up his price target to a Street-high $95 (6% upside potential).

“Looking closely, while we’re mindful of a potential slowdown, we believe there are plenty of positive points for investors to take note of such as (1) a rebound in activity in April/ May after a brief pause in March; (2) strong customer metrics (>130% expansion) and broad product traction; and (3) improving margins/FCF even with planned investments” Kidron cheered.

Overall, he sees multiple growth levers (upselling, new use cases, customer growth/ expansion) coupled with a conservative view from management- and as a result maintains a positive stance on the shares.

Indeed, all 7 analysts coverings Elastic rating the stock a buy, giving it a Strong Buy consensus. However, shares in Elastic are currently trading up 39% year-to-date, and as a result the average analyst price target of $76 now indicates 14% downside potential. (See ESTC stock analysis on TipRanks).

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