Company Update (NYSE:UPS): United Parcel Service, Inc. Announces 4Q:16 Results


United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) announced fourth-quarter 2016 operating results.  “Revenue and volume growth accelerated for UPS during the holiday season and we provided high service levels for our customers,” said David Abney, UPS chairman and CEO.  “The International segment delivered another extraordinary performance, while the U.S. managed through considerable changes in product mix.  Our strategies and initiatives are creating long-term value for both UPS customers and shareowners.”

Full-year and fourth-quarter 2016 results include a non-cash, after-tax, mark-to-market pension charge of $1.90 per diluted share.  In the prior-year period, the company reported non-cash, after-tax charges of $0.09 per diluted share related to pension mark-to-market charges.

  • 4Q 2016 diluted EPS of -$0.27; adjusted diluted EPS of $1.63.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS excludes the impact of non-cash, mark-to-market pension charge.
  • During the quarter, the company delivered 1.4 billion packages, up 7.1% over last year.

  • Revenue increased $648 million to $10.9 billion, a 6.3% increase over 4Q15.
  • Average daily shipments increased 5.0% to 19.6 million.
  • 4Q 2016 operating loss of $570 million; adjusted operating profit was $1.3 billion.
  • Adjusted operating profit excludes the mark-to-market pension charge.
  • Benefits from ORION and automation initiatives offset most of the impact from the faster pace of residential and SurePost growth.

  • International segment produced strong volume growth across all major products.
  • Revenue increased 5.0%, driven by an 8.4% jump in daily Export shipments.
  • Currency-neutral revenue increased 6.2% over the prior year.
  • 4Q 2016 operating profit was $281 million; adjusted operating profit was $706 million.
  • Adjusted operating profit excludes the mark-to-market pension charge.

  • Revenue increased 2.6% over 4Q15, to $2.7 billion.
  • 4Q 2016 operating loss of $139 million; adjusted operating profit was $179 million.
  • Adjusted operating profit excludes the mark-to-market pension charge.

Full-year 2016 Consolidated Results

  • Full-year 2016 diluted EPS of $3.87; adjusted diluted EPS was $5.75.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS excludes the impact of non-cash, mark-to-market pension charge.
  • Generated $6.5 billion in cash from operations.
  • Company made capital expenditures of nearly $3.0 billion during the year.
  • Paid dividends of $2.8 billion, an increase of 6.8% per share over the prior year.
  • Repurchased 25.5 million shares for approximately $2.7 billion.

Outlook

The company provides guidance on an adjusted (non-GAAP) basis because it is not possible to predict or provide a reconciliation reflecting the impact of future pension mark-to-market adjustments, which would be included in reported (GAAP) results and could be material.

“The investments in ORION and automation provided benefits during the quarter,” said Richard Peretz, UPS chief financial officer.  “However, bottom-line results were challenged by a shift in product mix and the continued softness in industrial production.  Strong growth, combined with our network investments, provide UPS with great opportunities for many years to come.”

  • UPS expects 2017 adjusted diluted EPS to be $5.80 to $6.10, which includes $400 million of pre-tax currency headwinds.
    — Further, the currency drag lowers the adjusted diluted EPS by $0.30 in 2017, and decreases the EPS growth rates by approximately 500 basis points.

Shares of United Parcel Service are down nearly 3% to $113.25 in pre-market trading Tuesday. UPS has a 1-year high of $120.44 and a 1-year low of $93.97. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $115.88 and its 200-day moving average is $111.63.

On the ratings front, UPS has been the subject of a number of recent research reports. In a report issued on January 9, Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski maintained a Hold rating on UPS, with a price target of $122, which represents a slight upside potential from current levels. Separately, on December 23, Aegis Capital Corp.’s Jeff Kauffman initiated coverage with a Hold rating on the stock and has a price target of $120.

According to TipRanks.com, which ranks over 7,500 financial analysts and bloggers to gauge the performance of their past recommendations, Brandon Oglenski and Jeff Kauffman have a yearly average return of 4.7% and 22.3% respectively. Oglenski has a success rate of 55% and is ranked #787 out of 4370 analysts, while Kauffman has a success rate of 86% and is ranked #413.

Sentiment on the street is mostly neutral on UPS stock. Out of 7 analysts who cover the stock, 5 suggest a Hold rating and 2 recommend to Buy the stock. The 12-month average price target assigned to the stock is $121.20, which represents a slight upside potential from current levels.

 

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