In a research report released Thursday, Cantor analyst William Tanner reiterated a Neutral rating on shares of AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAG) with a $17 price target, following the news of FDA approval for the company’s subcutaneous auto-injector Makena. Makena is a progestin indicated to reduce the risk of preterm birth in women pregnant with a single baby who have a history of singleton spontaneous preterm birth.
Tanner commented, “Notwithstanding FDA approval of the Makena auto-injector, we believe investors may be hesitant to aggressively buy the stock. Approval likely eliminates the worst-case scenario, but we believe the opacity as to timing of a generic hydroxyprogesterone caproate product approval creates a wide range of revenue potential and fair-value estimates for AMAG stock.”
“Our revised Makena model assumes a peak 20% market share for the auto-injector formulation that is priced at parity with the i.m. formulations. We further assume a generic entrant during 2H18 and a simultaneous launch of an authorized generic (AG) product by AMAG. We assume that branded Makena will experience a rapid loss of market share over the course of the year and that the AG product can capture 20% of the generic HCP market. This is along with a generic pricing assumption of 25% of the branded and that AMAG can capture 85% of the AG economics in revenue. The net result of these assumptions is AMAG Makena revenue of $273 million and firm revenue of $537 million for 2018,” the analyst added.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst William Tanner has a yearly average return of 13.2% and a 54% success rate. Tanner has a average return when recommending AMAG, and is ranked #492 out of 4753 analysts.
Out of the 10 analysts polled in the past 12 months, 7 rate Amag stock a Hold, while 3 rate the stock a Buy. With a return potential of 11%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $20.