In a research note released today, Roth Capital research team, led by analyst Debjit Chattopadhyay, maintained a Buy rating on Alcobra Ltd (NASDAQ:ADHD) with a $10 price target, as the company is scheduled to launch a second Phase III study in adult ADHD in the second quarter of 2015.
Chattopadhyay noted, “A wider appreciation that despite a failed phase 3, Alcobra has an active drug that is substantially differentiated from competition based on its safety profile has led the stock (up 99% YTD) to outperform its peer group (XBI, up ~14% YTD), in our view. As Alcobra readies to initiate its second phase-3 in adults with ADHD during 2Q15, we continue to believe that modification to the study design and enrollment criteria could drive a positive outcome. Alcobra remains well-funded through the end of the phase 3, which could cost up to $15M, by our estimates. Assuming a 2Q15 initiation, topline data could be available during late-2016 allowing for an early 2017 NDA filing.”
The analyst explained his price target, commenting, “Our current $10 target reflects approval/adoption only in adolescent ADHD segment. Anticipated regulatory clarity on the design/ powering of the phase 3 in adults with ADHD is an upside to our model. Risks to our target include clinical study failures.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Debjit Chattopadhyay has a total average return of 9.7% and a 52.5% success rate. Chattopadhyay has a -24.4% average return when recommending ADHD, and is ranked #501 out of 3480 analysts.