Chardan analyst Gbola Amusa weighed in today with a negative report on Esperion Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:ESPR), reducing the price target to $55 (from $50), while reiterating a Sell rating on the stock. The decreased price target comes after the FDA panel of competitor Praluent included commentary that raises questions on the value proposition of ETC-1002.
Amusa explained, “Yesterday, an FDA Advisory panel voted 13 to 3 that Regeneron and partner Sanofi had established that cholesterol-lowering drug, Praluent (alirocumab), has a benefit-risk profile that supports approval in one or more patient populations. We believe panelists and/or the FDA itself challenged important concepts behind the proposed value proposition of ETC-1002, namely: (1) that LDL lowering alone is a surrogate for outcomes for non-statins drugs, and (2) the scope of patients that are truly statins intolerant and for that reason alone are in need of novel products like ETC-1002.”
Bottom line: “We have incremental caution that FDA could require studies that derail consensus’ view of a 2018 ETC-1002 launch (versus our view of a 2020+ launch, if the product makes it to market). We therefore reduce our probability of success for ETC-1002 from 45% to 40%, resulting in our PT decreasing.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Gbola Amusa has a total average return of 13.6% and a 64.5% success rate. Amusa has a 6.8% average return when recommending ESPR, and is ranked #719 out of 3642 analysts.
Out of the 8 analysts polled by TipRanks, 7 rate Esperion Therapeutics stock a Buy, while 1 rates the stock a Sell. With a return potential of 52.8%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $117.75.