Canaccord Genuity analyst Sara Elford is reducing the price targets on the natural gas giant Hydrogenics Corporation (USA) (NASDAQ:HYGS) from $22 to $19, after the company released softer than expected first-quarter financial results. The analyst reiterated a Buy rating on the stock, as she believes that the company’s positive outlook remains intact and the strategic value of Hydrogenics’ technology portfolio is not adequately reflected in its share price.
Elford noted, “Q1/15 revenue was 28% below our expectations (US$7.5 million, -7% y/y). Individual quarters remain difficult to forecast, with any miss or beat translating into significant under- or over-performance on an adj. EBITDA basis as opex and plant overhead expenses are largely fixed. Adj. EBITDA was US$(2.3) million, below our US$(1.2) million forecast.”
Furthermore, “Management has not provided 2015 revenue guidance, but has said that a steady sequential progression higher is expected. Factoring in the Q1/15 results and backlog data, we now think 2015 revenue will come in around the US$50 million mark. While this is considered to be Hydrogenics’ break-even point, we expect a small EBITDA loss due to mix (lower gross margin).”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Sara Elford has a total average return of -7.6% and a 40.0% success rate. Elford has a -22.9% average return when recommending HYGS, and is ranked #3041 out of 3594 analysts.