In a research report released today, Cowen analyst Boris Peaker maintained an Outperform rating on shares of Heron Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:HRTX), and raised the price target to $47 (from $40), following an extensive analysis of HTX-011, the Company’s lead product candidate for the prevention of post-operative pain. The analyst believes HTX-011 will be the key stock driver in the near future.
Peaker noted, “Bupivacaine appears to the best local anesthetic for post-operative pain, but it is efficacy is limited to 24-48 hour due to local tissue inflammation. We believe that HTX-011 addresses this limitation and is likely to emerge as best-in-class drug. We anticipate Phase 2 results in 4Q15 and 1Q16 for HTX-011 from 4-5 Phase 2 trials.”
Furthermore, “We presently estimate HTX-011 to reach ~$800M in peak sales with a 50% probability of success. While some may view 50% as a high probability for a drug that only completed Phase 1 studies, we have a high confidence in HTX-011.”
The analyst concluded, “We’ve added HTX-011 to our NPV model for HRTX (previous NPV based on Sustol), which increases our price target from $40 to $47. We believe Phase 2 data can significantly de-risk HTX-011, with substantial room for upside to our model.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Boris Peaker has a total average return of 26.9% and a 50.5% success rate. Peaker has a -7.4% average return when recommending HRTX, and is ranked #86 out of 3737 analysts.