Cowen’s healthcare analyst Boris Peaker weighed in today with a few insights on Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:KERX), following yesterday’s meeting with the company’s management team. The analyst rates the stock an Outperform with a price target of $25, which represents a potential upside of 123% from where the stock is currently trading.
Peaker wrote, “Management was comfortable with January scripts and anticipates to track the trajectory of other binder launches by year end (~13-14k scripts/month). We assume ~12k scripts/month, 30% gross to net and 55% compliance.” The analyst continued, “Keryx does not share investor’s concern about Auryxia’s formulary tier since ~60% of patients are Part D medicare and 2/3 of these qualify for Low Income Subsidy. As such their co-pays are independent of the drug’s formulary status.”
Furthermore, “Auryxia will be differentiated from Velphoro in its marketing message in addition to its clinical benefits. Our research into Velphoro’s launch suggests that Fresenius did not put significant efforts into the drug’s launch, and is not erecting barriers to other phosphate binders in its clinic.”