In its latest PC industry forecast, Gartner, a leading information technology research and advisory company, calls for a more significant decline in 2016 of 7.3% followed by a modest recovery in units for 2017 of 1.8%.
The analyst explains that steady decline has been a consistent pattern in the PC industry and expects further declines in years to come. The analyst noted, “we are lowering our FY16 and FY17 revenue and non-GAAP EPS estimates to reflect the reduced PC unit expectations.” The analyst’s FY2016 and FY2017 for Microsoft have also been reduced, with revenue expectations being slashed 0.1% and 0.7% for FY2016 and FY2017, respectively.
DiFucci also concedes that his revised estimates sit below consensus and assumes that a lot of MSFT’s shortfall will come from emerging markets where Microsoft does not monetize its Windows business to the best of its abilities.
Another factor contributing to the analysts rating is plateauing industry revenue. DiFucci expects industry revenue to be flat for at least the next four years, something he believes to be symptomatic of the difficult PC demand environment.
The analyst issued an Underperform rating for Microsoft with a price target of $40.00, marking a 17% downside from current prices.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst John Difucci has a yearly average return of 3.7% and a 48% success rate. Difucci has a 1.0% average return when recommending MSFT, and is ranked #687 out of 3967 analysts.
TipRanks’ statistics shows 71% of analysts maintain a Buy rating for MSFT, while 21% issue a Hold rating, and 8% uphold a Sell rating for the stock. The consensus price target for MSFT is $58.37, a 20.50% upside.