EV Models Available in the US Today
Not surprising, the US electric vehicle market is rapidly growing. In 2016, EVs accounted for less than 0.25% of cars sold in the US. In 2019, EVs will account for 2-3%. We’re likely 15-25 years away from 100% EV adoption. The table below outlines EV models that are currently available in the US sorted by starting price.
EV Models Expected in the US in 2020
The following table outlines expectations from automakers for new EVs in 2020 sorted by starting price.
Long-Term Market Share Expectations
As mentioned, Tesla’s year to date US EV market share is 75%. Over the next 10 years, we expect Tesla’s share to decline to 20-25%. As a point of reference, in 2018, GM had the leading market share in the US at about 17%. Factoring in a stable US auto market of 18m units a year (eventually, all cars will be electric) yields 3.6-4.5m annual Tesla sales in the US. This compares to what will likely be just over 200k US Tesla deliveries (of our estimated 360k global deliveries) in 2019.
Tesla’s 7 Year Head Start
The prevailing wisdom holds that OEMs are quite good at producing cars and switching the drive train to electric will be simple, allowing them to profitably scale EV production and maintain their market position. If this is true, it would dramatically lower Tesla’s market share and make the story less compelling overall, but we believe Tesla’s 7-year head start sets the company up to control a significant share of the market for a long time. Three key benefits from Tesla’s head start:
- 92% more efficient batteries than four other EV manufacturers, adjusting for differences in range evaluation methods.
- Vertically integrated Supercharger network is easier to use compared to generic charging stations.
- More advanced self-driving capabilities.
Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest or may invest: virtual reality, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, and robotics. From time to time, we may write about companies that are in our portfolio. As managers of the portfolio, we may earn carried interest, management fees or other compensation from such portfolio.