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Best tech/finance blogger on TipRanks. Alex Cho is ranked 7th among all financial bloggers, with a sector focus of technology stocks. The research he publishes captures the long-term growth potential of tech franchises, and market valuation. His research recommendations over the span of five-years has averaged into an annualized return of 19.3% across 392 ratings of which 66% were successful. Over his years of publishing, Alex Cho has been an indispensable source of information for an investment minded audience, which is why his lifetime viewership has exceeded ten million in total since 2012, across various media platforms. Furthermore, he’s frequently cited in various local business journals across the United States, and is frequently tagged with the “in-depth” designation on Google News for his public articles. The quality of his research is well known, and is well-respected which is why he’s frequently cited by other authors, journalists, bloggers and experts. Alex Cho was a former founding partner of Alexander & Cohen Capital Management, has worked as a consultant for mid-stage tech companies looking to raise capital or form an exit strategy, with the most recent consultation billed to a client that was generating revenue of $10 million+ in the web domain/registrar segment. Alex Cho is frequently invited to interview members of management at various Fortune 500 tech companies’ due to his outstanding media credentials, and credibility. Furthermore, he frequently attends various tech media events at the request of the event organizers. Alex Cho has a great relationship with Wall Street and Silicon Valley, as well. In the Venture Capital Space, he has sources that are inclusive of VC Partners, and independent research from PitchBook, Mercury Data, eMarketer, MergermarketGroup, and so forth. Anyone facing the public with investment related material needs quality sources, which should be inclusive of insights from Private Equity and various sell-side institutions and debt rating agencies as well (Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, & Moody’s). Alex Cho publishes with the support of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley Americas, Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, United Bank of Switzerland AG, Barclays Americas, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Credit Suisse AG, PiperJaffray, Wedbush Securities, Oppenheimer & Co., Nomura Securities, BMO Capital Markets, Raymond James, Pacific Crest, SunTrust, Mizuho Securities, Deutsche Bank and Canaccord Genuity. Alex Cho attended ASU via the MAPP program with a 3.76 GPA in business-finance. The genius behind Cho has less to do with his academic accomplishments, but rather his ability to navigate, adapt, and improve the quality of his work through all the activities he has engaged. In the past year, Alex Cho has launched a new marketplace service referred to as Cho’s Investment Research. To learn more about this service, or to receive article notifications, be sure sure to subscribe. We provide frequent updates via our Blog Posts, which goes out to our subscribers.

Why Autonomous Could Be a Strong Driver for Nvidia (NVDA) Stock

The gaming sector appears to be slower than investors had hoped for, and with Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) becoming a stronger rival, the relative weakness of the gaming industry creates a key risk to Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock. However, despite some of the negative commentary pertaining to Nvidia, there could be a silver lining to the recent GPU apocalypse. Perhaps, the on-going development within its ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) division could offset some of the negative headwinds, as there were a number of wins recently tied to automotive OEMs, and on-going deployments of level 3-4 systems that could move the investor thesis forward in this area.

Rob Csonger (General Manager of Autonomous Machine Group Nvidia) was on the call with Timothy Arcuri (UBS Analyst), where they discuss the development of Nvidia’s ADAS systems, and also how they came up with their expected total addressable market opportunity:

Rob Csonger: The TAM that we talked about at our recent investor day – the $30 billion number — was based off of three components. One was a driving component; in other words this is revenue that NVidia would derive from computers and software that would go into the vehicles. The second component would be data center products, which are used for training and development of the software that goes into the car computers. And then finally at GTC we announced a new product called Drive Constellation, which is a simulation product for testing and validating.

Rob Csonger: So what we’re doing is – our technology of course is based on our newest processor called Xavier. And we are enabling the world’s automakers to deploy a system like this with even more performance and more functionality. And the announcement we made with Toyota is an example of that. So based on that, I think – you know, we estimated roughly 35 million cars and we also estimated that you would need two computers. You would need a computer for the selfdriving and you need a computer for the cockpit. And given a, you know — call it — hundreds of dollars, you know, ASP, you’d end up with, you know, a significant portion of that TAM.

What Rob Csonger is anticipating are a number of factors near-term that will drive the autonomous market forward. Namely, Toyota and Mercedes Benz, which have both expanded their collaboration on Nvidia’s autonomous platform, which means the shipment of a lot more Xavier chips when both companies are ready to launch their next-gen platforms (could be a couple years out).

Nvidia also released Xavier (several months ago) which does 30 trillion operations per second (heavily optimized for Nvidia’s custom CUDA architecture and machine learning algorithms). Rob Csonger also mentioned that they have “85 other companies developing on the Xavier platform.” Plus, it could have widespread adoption in robotics or other areas where datacenter on a chip makes sense. They started selling the developer kits (January 2019) for quantities of 1,000 (minimum) for $1,100 (implying that each developer kit will cost $1.1M per company at minimum).

Assuming, the automotive narrative plays out, Nvidia could reach a multiple billion/year revenue runway from the segment alone. Though, customers would have to value a more advanced autonomous driving system when buying their cars and opt for the upgrade. However, Tesla has a 77% attach rate for its advanced autonomous features, which cost $5,000 extra, according to Rob Csonger, so there may be meaningful adoption even if Toyota were to release the same feature.

If Toyota were to market a Level 4 system (which could work on freeways but probably not surface roads) and sold 1M cars with these features, while Nvidia generates $2,000 per unit (due to volume) they would generate an incremental $2B revenue from just Toyota alone. Toyota sold 10.4 million cars in FY’18, so they’d only need to sell the feature to just 10% of their customer base for it to become a viable volume business for Nvidia.

Bottom Line

Autonomous remains Nvidia’s most promising growth area given the weakness in GPU shipments tied to gaming and crypto mining. The autonomous revenue might surprise in the next couple quarters as developer kit orders for Xavier starts to impact financial results. However, the adoption of Nvidia’s ADAS architecture might not translate into meaningful volume shipments for a couple years, but each auto OEM does intend to launch cars with ADAS level 4-5 systems in the next five-years.

Disclosure: The author has no position in Nvidia stock.

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