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Amazon: Top Analyst Raises Estimates… Again


Once again, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian is singing Amazon’s (AMZN) praises.

Extra emphasis on the again here. The coronavirus has wreaked havoc on all aspects of daily life but what it has also inadvertently done, is provide Amazon with a monster surge in demand that shows no signs of slowing down. With the $1 trillion market cap milestone in the rear-view mirror, the Street has been playing catch up all year with Amazon.

Amazon’s continued rise comes down to the simple fact that it is exponentially growing in all directions. This point is not lost on Sebastian, who thinks Wall Street is underestimating Amazon’s growth curve.

The 5-star analyst said, “Our revised Q2 revenue estimate of $85.2 billion (34%-plus year-over-year) is above consensus of $80.8 billion – we are modeling 40% growth in Online stores (vs. 24%-plus in Q1), 40% growth in Advertising, 35% growth in 3P seller services, 33% growth in AWS, 32% growth in Retail Subscriptions and 10% growth in Physical Stores.”

However, while Amazon’s sales got a corona charged boost in the quarter, operating expenses increased significantly, too. The e-commerce giant hired extra hands to meet the demand, increased hourly wages and spent heavily to ensure employees’ safety. That said, Sebastian believes these expenses will be partially offset by “greater marketing efficiencies.” The analyst counts “lower ad prices, lower ad spend in some areas and high levels of repeat purchase activity” as counterpoints to the additional overhead.

Sebastian’s updated estimates are accompanied by a new price target of $3,300, raised from $2,750, which suggests 4% upside potential. In addition, his Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating stays as is. (To watch Sebastian’s track record, click here)

The rest of the Street keeps Amazon in its good graces, too, going by the 38 Buys, 2 Holds and one lone Sell rating. These add up to a Strong Buy consensus rating. However, once again Amazon’s latest share gains (70% year-to-date) have left the $2,856.03 average price target in the dust. The figure now implies shares could drop by 9% over the coming months. (See Amazon stock analysis on TipRanks)

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