Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports earnings today after the bell. The whisper number is $0.30, one cent behind the analysts’ estimate and showing no confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $0.24 to a high of $0.35. Tesla has a 50% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 5 of the 10 earnings reports for which we have data).
– Beat whisper: 5 qtrs
– Met whisper: 0 qtrs
– Missed whisper: 5 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day time frame:
The strongest price movement of +8.4% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports that beat the whisper number, and -2.8% within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average post earnings price move is ‘as expected’ (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in two of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings thirteen cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 15.4% gain in five trading days. Last quarter, the company reported earnings one cent short of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized an 8.3% gain in ten trading days, before turning and seeing a 10.5% loss in thirty trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) an ‘as expected’ price reactor when the company reports earnings.