I feel strongly that Brazil should be sold and that a retest of 2,130 in the S&P is imminent. Importantly, should the S&P fail to hold that breakpoint it would represent a bearish unconfirmed, low volume, false breakout to an all-time high, during the “worst” two month stretch of the year for stocks and “best” 2 month stretch for volatility over the past 25 years. This would be bad.
I feel strongly that Emerging Markets have become a crowded consensus long and have reached a short term technical inflection point for a risk off reversal (a bad combination). Similarly, the technicals suggest that the powerful surge in EM Currencies such as Rand, Real, and Korean Won, have run their course for now and potentially stand poised to weaken sharply short term. Given the strong correlation between EM stocks, currencies, High Yield Credit and CDS spreads (see charts), it stands to reason that a reversal in EM assets will coincide with a bearish reversal in risk more broadly.
Crude for its part continues to act well against the current backdrop of a weaker dollar, renewed OPEC chatter and more favorable August/September seasonality. However, should EM and EMFX retreat, Crude is unlikely to emerge unscathed.
I feel strongly that no one, including the Fed itself, has a strong feel for the short term direction of interest rates. While the trend remains lower on the charts, JGB and Bund yields have firmed, and the action in interest sensitive stocks (Banks, Ute’s, REIT’s, Telco’s) suggests that the next move in US Yields is higher.
I feel strongly that neither consumer discretionary stocks, nor the consumer itself are that strong. S&P Homebuilders for example failed badly into their 2015 highs with the whole world rallying and mortgage rates at historic lows. Speaking of Lowe’s….In sum, I feel strongly that from August 18th through August 25th of 2015 the VIX surged 286% and the S&P fell 11.2%. Save the date.