Sunshine Profits

About the Author Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits is built around the belief that we are in a secular bull market in all commodities and that precious metals will be among its greatest beneficiaries. Having established long term trends, our investment strategy focuses on evaluating low-risk entry points, as well as timing potential tops.

S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Nears 2,800 Again, Breakout or Fakeout? And What About Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)?


Friday’s trading session was very bullish, as the main U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.7-1.8%. Investors’ sentiment improved following better-than-expected monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation and it got close to the late February local high of 2,789.15. The index currently trades 3.0% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.8% on Friday. The latter reached new record high, as it broke above 7,500 mark again.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is at 2,790-2,800, marked by the above-mentioned previous local high. The next possible level of resistance is at 2,830-2,840, marked by some late January local highs. On the other hand, support level is now at 2,740-2,750, marked by Friday’s daily gap up of 2,740.45-2,751.54. The next level of support remains at 2,700-2,720, among others.

The S&P 500 index reached its record high on January 26. It broke below month-long upward trend line, as it confirmed uptrend’s reversal. Then the broad stock market gauge retraced all of its January rally and continued lower. The index extended its downtrend on February 9, as it was almost 12% below the late January record high. We can see that stocks reversed their medium-term upward course following whole retracement of January euphoria rally. Then the market bounced off its almost year-long medium-term upward trend line, and it retraced more than 61.8% of the sell-off within a few days of trading. Is this just an upward correction or uptrend leading to new all-time highs? The market seems to be in the middle of two possible future scenarios. The bearish case leads us to February low or lower after breaking below medium-term upward trend line, and the bullish one means potential double top pattern or breakout above the late January high. Friday’s trading session made the bullish case much more likely.

Amazon Continues Higher While Apple Lags

Let’s take a look at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) daily chart.

It was one of February stock market rout’s main drivers. Then it led broad stock market rebound rally. It fell close to support level of $150 on February 9. Since then it was retracing its early February losses. The market reached new record high two weeks ago, as it was trading slightly above $180 mark. Then it retraced some of its short-term uptrend, but it got closer to record high again on Friday. Will it reach new record high soon? It may continue higher, but we see some negative medium-term technical divergences – the most common divergences are between asset’s price and some indicator based on it (for instance the index and RSI or MACD based on the index). In this case, the divergence occurs when price forms a higher high and the indicator forms a lower high. It shows us that even though price reaches new highs, the fuel for the uptrend starts running low.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock continues its upward march, as it reaches new record highs and gets closer to the price of $1,600. The stock continues to trade well above its end-of-year closing price of $1,167.5. AMZN bounced off its upward trend line a month ago following downward correction below the price of $1,300. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. There are still some negative technical divergences along with overbought conditions, but the stock remains remarkably stronger than the broad stock market: