Alerian

About the Author Alerian

Here at Alerian, we love MLPs and energy infrastructure. As an indexing company, we exclusively follow these asset classes all day, every day. They are our bread and butter, our peanut butter and jelly, our ham and eggs. We’re kind of dorks about it. Here’s what to expect: As an indexing firm, you can expect objectivity. As employees, we are prohibited from owning individual MLPs; any skin we have in the game is related to the asset class itself. You can expect transparency. We think that’s one of the only ways to run an index with integrity. We are also citizens of the modern world and value transparency over secrecy. Primarily, though, we’re interested in giving you the tools to make your own decisions. We trust that you’re smart and willing to put in some work to understand MLPs and energy infrastructure. Whenever possible, we’ll walk you through the process and spell out the facts we used to draw our conclusions, so that you are free to draw different ones. We’re stat nerds, too. So you can expect us to wax poetic about data. We’re no longer embarrassed about all those years in math club. In fact, those years of being decidedly uncool have helped us explain the things we love about statistics in ways everyone can understand. You won’t find stock tips here. We’ll talk about interesting developments and trends in energy, let you know how MLPs are exposed, and acknowledge the risks. In the end, your decisions are yours. You won’t find breaking news here. Instead, we’ll focus more on long-form journalism—the kind of writing that takes time to research and analyze. We’ll talk to industry experts, see what they have to say, and pass that along to you. We’ll attend analyst days, read 100-page government reports, track any relevant bills in Congress, build models, and draw diagrams. Whatever we find fascinating, intriguing, challenging, or just plain amusing, we’ll pass that along, too. Ask us questions. Our contributors have dramatically varied backgrounds and passions: engineering, physics, international studies, and communications undergraduate degrees along with some postgraduate alphabet soup (CFA, CPA, MPA, and MSA). We like to come at it from all angles. At the end of the day, everything we do here will be driven by our vision: to equip investors to make informed decisions about MLPs and energy infrastructure. That’s it. That’s all. That’s everything. Welcome Aboard. Alerian equips investors to make informed decisions about Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and energy infrastructure. Its benchmarks, including the flagship Alerian MLP Index (AMZ), are widely used by industry executives, investment professionals, research analysts, and national media to analyze relative performance. Over $19 billion is directly tied to the Alerian Index Series through exchange-traded products, delta one notes, and separately managed accounts. For more information, including index values, yields, constituents, and announcements regarding rebalancings, please visit www.alerian.com.

Just Happened: Dominion Analyst Day


If you’re invested in MLPs for their current income, then Dominion Midstream Partners (NYSE:DM) is not for you. The company’s 1.75% yield as of Friday’s close is lower than both the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yields at 1.95% and 2.05%, respectively. It is also the second-lowest yield [1] in the energy MLP space among non-distressed, distribution-paying companies. Why the discrepancy of 400-plus basis points against the Alerian MLP Index (AMZ)? A basic economic principle: rational agents spend today in anticipation of future earnings. Similarly, investors bid up the unit prices today of those MLPs with the clearest visibility to long-term, above-average distribution growth. DM’s 22% CAGR through 2020 [2] certainly falls into that category.

The first slide is the company’s blueprint for getting there. This level of detail not only allows analysts to better understand the timing of dropdowns; it also subtly points out that the assets being sold to DM have an organic growth component to them too. The $89 million of EBITDA projected for 2015 grows to $93 million in 2016 without an acquisition from the parent. The $129 million of EBITDA projected for 2016 grows to $139 million in 2017 without a deal. And so on. In 2020, when DM’s EBITDA hits $874 million, sponsor Dominion Resources (NYSE:D) expects to generate an additional $1.7 billion in MLP-qualifying EBITDA at the sponsor level. Assuming [3] the size of dropdowns in 2021 and beyond is consistent with the 2015-2020 period as a percentage of prior-year EBITDA [4], that gives DM another 2-3 years of top-tier distribution growth. In order for investors to continue to ascribe a premium valuation to DM in the 2020s, however, the company will need to keep replenishing its dropdown inventory [5]. Fortunately for management, it has a relatively long time to do that as compared to most of its peers.

In the second slide, management describes its equity financing plans for these dropdowns. In short: don’t expect D to take a bunch of units in every transaction. Of the 126 million LP units that DM will issue through 2020, D anticipates taking less than 30% of them, resulting in a decline in its LP ownership stake to 43% from 69% at the IPO. In most instances, the knowledge that an MLP will finance an organic growth project or acquisition with public equity creates an overhang on the stock. But investors thus far have found DM’s growth trajectory so compelling that they’re not waiting for the discount associated with these follow-on offerings to take a position. D, meanwhile, will be putting the sales proceeds toward $19.2 billion of growth capex over the next six years, which management believes will drive annual earnings growth of 6%-7% and annual dividend growth of 8% over the same timeframe.

Footnotes:

[1] The energy MLP with the lowest yield is Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE:SHLX) at 1.56%.

[2] DM is targeting a $2.30 per unit distribution in 2020 versus $0.70 in 2014.

[3] We believe this is a reasonable assumption to make because, per the footnotes, management expects DM to continue to trade at a 2.0% yield for the rest of this decade.

[4] An average of 55% for the 2015-2020 period.

[5] A dropdown story is only as good as the sponsor’s inventory and the organic growth opportunities on the MLP’s existing asset base. At an extreme, let’s assume an MLP has no organic growth prospects but is able to double its distribution in each of the next two years via dropdowns. If the company pays $1 annually today, it might trade at $50, equivalent to a 2% yield. But that’s only because investors know that the distribution will be $4 at the end of year two, or an 8% yield on today’s price. Investors won’t continue to bid the stock up to a 2% yield (i.e. $100 after the year one distribution raise and $200 after the year two distribution raise) because they know that at the end of year two, there are no growth prospects remaining.