Leigh Drogen is the Founder and CEO of Estimize. Estimize is an open financial estimates platform which facilitates the aggregation of fundamental estimates from independent, buy-side, and sell-side analysts, along with those of industry experts, private investors and students. By sourcing estimates from a diverse community of individuals, Estimize provides both a more accurate and more representative view of expectations compared to sell side only data. Leigh started his career as a quant trader at Geller Capital, a White Plains, NY based fund where he ran strategies that looked at earnings acceleration and analyst estimate revision models, as well as price momentum and several sentiment indicators. Leigh later went on to be the founder of Surfview Capital, a New York based asset management firm that used many of the same strategies as Geller Capital, with a focus on higher beta names on an intermediate term time frame. His educational background includes focus in economics and international relations, specifically war theory. He is a graduate with honors from Hunter College in New York City. You can contact Leigh by emailing him at Leigh@estimize.com
5 Stocks to Watch This Week: FTNT, UA, MANH, SKX, FB
Network security company Fortinet has been on a roll. The company’s shares are trading near all time highs but well above their ChartIQ Visual Earnings Price Horizon.
The Visual Earnings Price Horizon uses trailing earnings-to-sales and price-to-sales ratios to plot the implied stock price after an upcoming earnings release against the actual stock price chart. Consensus estimates used in the projection come from either Wall Street or Estimize. Here we see Fortinet trading 9% above its revenue price horizon and 25% above its earnings price horizon based on estimates from Estimize.
The expected drop in earnings this quarter is one reason why Fortinet’s stock price may have gotten far ahead of its earnings price horizon. This quarter Estimize contributors expect earnings per share to fall to 7 cents from 11 cents last year. At the same time revenue is projected to climb from $167 million to $208 million according to the crowd at Estimize.
Rising athletic wear and fitness technology company Under Armour is set to report earnings Tuesday before the opening bell. Under Armour has shown several years of strong financial performance underlined by year over year revenue growth of at least 30% during each quarter of 2014.
Estimize contributors are predicting 27% sales growth in the first quarter of 2015. The Estimize consensus is for $818 million in revenue this period while Wall Street is only looking for $802 million. This differential is approximately average compared to recent quarters. Under Armour has topped revenue expectations from both groups 5 out of the past 8 times and reported within 0.5% of the Estimize consensus during each miss.
Estimize contributors expect earnings to come in at 7c per share which is a penny higher than last year’s results. Wall Street expects profits to drop by a penny per share to 5c.
Manhattan Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:MANH) – Reports Tuesday
Tuesday afternoon we’ll hear from Manhattan Associates, a supply chain management software producer which has flown under many people’s radar. Manhattan Associates is in the middle of a consistent phase of moderate growth. Last year earnings improved between 21% and 37% each quarter and revenues increased between 17% and 21%.
The Estimize consensus is projecting a 19% boost to profits with revenue increasing 17.5%. Manhattan Associates stock is trading near all time highs and the company has raised its earnings in every quarter for 3 straight years. If Manhattan Associates can deliver again this week it will be 1 quarter shy from recording 4 years of continuous profit growth.
Sketchers is another company with blazing earnings growth and a stock price bumping up against all time best levels. While the pure-breed athletic wear companies Under Armour and Nike (NKE) are hot right now, so are ‘athleisure’ brands like Sketchers.
The sneaker maker posted triple digit earnings growth three times last year, most noticeably an increase from 14 cents per share in FQ2 2013 to 68 cents in FQ2 2014. That’s a 386% year over year gain. Sketchers’s mind blowing earnings growth helped the company’s stock price to more than double last year. Despite the huge run up in the share-price, SKX is trading right in line with the projection from the ChartIQ Visual Earnings Price Horizon.
Mark Zuckerburg’s social network and mobile advertising juggernaut will share its financial results on Wednesday. Last quarter Facebook did over $3 billion in ad sales with 69% of the total coming from mobile. Facebook remains a leg up on the competition in serving mobile advertisements where tracking is more challenging because of its collection of demographic data and account activity.
Contributing analysts on Estimize expect Facebook to beat the Wall Street EPS consensus by 4 cents per share while edging past revenue estimates from the Street by less than 0.25%. Mobile and video ads are extremely profitable for Facebook and Estimize contributors appear to believe that will spill over to another big earnings beat.
Last quarter Facebook beat the Wall Street consensus by 5 cents per share. Analysts on Estimize are forecasting a beat of a similar magnitude on Wednesday.