In a report released today, Difei Yang from Mizuho Securities maintained a Hold rating on Alder Biopharmaceuticals (ALDR), with a price target of $15. The company’s shares closed yesterday at $11.43, close to its 52-week low of $10.45.
Yang wrote:
“We applied a weighted average valuation methodology to Alder using DCF and EV/Sales under assumptions of commercialization of Eptinezumab (ALD 403) US sales in 2Q 2020 and EU royalties in 2020. Our estimated 2028 FCF is $495 million and terminal value is 4.5x of 2028 estimated FCF. We layered a probability of clinical success of 90% in addition to a 17% discount rate to arrive at our $11 PT using DCF. For EV/Sales, we apply a 3.5 multiple (based on comps) to discounted 2024 sales to derive our $19 PT. Our weighted average valuation is $15 per share. Our base case scenario valuation assumes unadjusted peak sales of $1.1 bn for Eptinezumab in the U.S. in 2025. Our bull case scenario valuation assumes better than anticipated uptake of Eptinezumab with unadjusted peak sales of $1.3 bn in the U.S. in 2025 and a 4.0x terminal multiple, resulting in a $22 PT.”
According to TipRanks.com, Yang is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 16.6% and a 45.7% success rate. Yang covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Nightstar Therapeutics Limited, Audentes Therapeutics, and Revance Therapeutics.
Alder Biopharmaceuticals has an analyst consensus of Moderate Buy, with a price target consensus of $23.33.
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The company has a one-year high of $20.87 and a one-year low of $10.45. Currently, Alder Biopharmaceuticals has an average volume of 789.2K.
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Alder Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, which discovers, develops, and commercializes various therapeutic antibodies. Its product portfolio includes ALD1910, a preclinical product candidate also in development as a migraine prevention therapy.
