United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, February 3rd. The whisper number is $1.27, two cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate and showing some confidence from the WhisperNumber community. UPS has a 42% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 21 of the 50 earnings reports for which we have data).
– Beat whisper: 21 qtrs
– Met whisper: 2 qtrs
– Missed whisper: 27 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day time frame:
The strongest price movement of +1.6% comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +1.9% within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average post earnings price move is ‘positive’ (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in one of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 2.1% loss in five trading days. Last quarter, the company reported earnings two cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 6.5% gain in thirty trading days. Overall, historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) a ‘positive’ price reactor when the company reports earnings.
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