Chris Ciovacco

About the Author Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets? Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities. Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.

How Vulnerable Is The Stock Market?


Rate Hikes Always Spook Investors

Friday’s big “fear of a rate increase” selloff in stocks (NYSEARCA:VTI) was not getting a bearish follow-through during Monday’s session. While it is too early for the bulls to declare victory, the Fed has been telegraphing a rate hike for some time. From The Wall Street Journal:

“It just feels like people are starting to shrug off the Fed,” said Tom Carter, managing director and trader at JonesTrading. “The economy is strong. Unemployment is going down. All the numbers have come in OK and we’re going higher. On a relative basis, people like the U.S. economy”… the Fed is likely to take a slow approach to raising rates, paving the way for relatively low interest rates for a while longer. And easing actions by major central banks, particularly by the European Central Bank, will help keep global interest rates low.

Is The Big Picture Concerning?

This week’s stock market video compares 2015 to vulnerable periods in 1987 and 2007, allowing us to better understand possible downside risks in equities.

Greece Issue Still Lingers

It comes as no surprise that Europe is still trying to iron out a debt deal for Greece, a topic that remains on the market’s radar. From Reuters:

The head of euro zone finance ministers urged Greece on Monday to “stop wasting time” and buckle down to serious talks on implementing a reform program to secure urgently needed fresh funds from its international creditors. Ministers spent barely 30 minutes discussing Greece at their monthly meeting, an EU official said, stressing it was time for Athens to engage in serious, detailed discussions with experts from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – formerly known as the “troika”.

Investment Implications – The Weight Of The Evidence

The evidence deteriorated enough last week for our model to recommend a slight reduction in exposure to risk. As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) has several areas between 2033 and 2064 where buyers may become more interested. We will see how things play out between now and Friday’s close.

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