Chris Ciovacco

About the Author Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets? Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities. Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.

The Fed May Surprise The Markets With A Dovish Tone

The base expectation is for the Fed to take no action in terms of interest rates this week. The market will be focusing on language related to the possibility of a June rate increase. From Reuters

U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady when they meet this week, but may tweak their description of the economic outlook to reflect more benign conditions, leaving the path open for future rate rises.

Case For New Highs vs. Case For New Lows

This week’s stock market video covers several timely topics related to the bull vs. bear debate:

  1. Similarities and differences: now versus NOV-DEC 2015 peaking period.
  2. NYSE Fibonacci retracement update.
  3. Fundamental comparisons to 2000 and 2007.
  4. VIX Fear Index near key level.
  5. Rare market events 2013-2016.

The Bullish Scenario For Stocks

As outlined in detail on April 20, in late December/early January when the Fed talked about the possibility of four 2016 interest rate hikes, numerous asset markets did not respond favorably. Given those events remain fresh in the minds of central bankers, it is possible the Fed takes a surprisingly dovish tone this week, which could help propel risk assets higher. From Reuters:

Many Fed officials remain spooked by the steep stock market drop earlier this year and by weak first-quarter U.S. economic data. Concrete signs of higher inflation and growth may be needed before the FOMC, the Fed’s policy committee, continues with the projected gradual path toward more normal levels of interest rates.


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