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Tesla Motors Stock’s Decline Has Just Begun

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares moved downward in eight of the last nine trading sessions. The stock has declined more than 24% in the last three months. Some argue that most momentum stocks, not just Tesla, have witnessed a decline. Others blame falling oil price for Tesla’s decline. They believe that a steep decline in oil is taking a lot on the electric vehicle maker. Low fuel prices make SUVs more attractive to potential Tesla customers.

Tesla stock to find support at $180

But a recent analysis by Bespoke Investment Group revealed that, in the last six months, there was close to zero correlation between oil prices and Tesla stock. That means they moved independently of each other. Technical analysts are quick to point out that the stock has breached a number of important technical barriers. The stock has fell below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Traders use these averages to evaluate long-term trends. And breaking both the barriers is a sign of concern.

Ari Wald, chief of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, said that it was “a little concerning” in the short-term. Wald says it’s time to stay away from the stock. The Oppenheimer analyst had correctly predicted the sell-off in Tesla stock in late October. He says the recent pullback is a healthy consolidation, but he is concerned about the near-term technicals.

Tesla stock is up today


Wald expects the stock to go further down to $180 level, which he calls a “critical support level.” S&P Capital IQ Global Markets Intelligence’s chief investment officer Erin Gibbs said fundamentals justify Wald’s price target. The Palo Alto-based company’s valuation has come down in the last 18 months from 190x forward earnings to slightly below 110x estimated forward earnings today. And it may sink further. Erin Gibbs said that the stock will likely find a base at 100x forward earnings, which will bring the stock to around $185. 

Tesla shares jumped 2.55% to $215.19 at 11:54 AM EST on Thursday.

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