Rich Ross

About the Author Rich Ross

Ross is a Managing Director and Head of Technical Analysis at Evercore ISI. Mr. Ross is responsible for analyzing price and intermarket relationships across stocks, commodities, currencies and interest rates around the world. Prior to joining Evercore ISI, Mr. Ross spent 5.5 years at Auerbach Grayson where he built the technical analysis product from the ground up. Prior to that he wrote technical research for Tocqueville Securities and held positions as a NASDAQ Market Maker and Proprietary Equity Trader.

The S&P 500 (SPY) Is “Extremely” Oversold

  • The CallThe S&P Futures (+30 last) finish the day higher by +55-65 handles and retest 2,900 in short order as the technicals now offer a compelling tactical setup for a Textbook V-shaped reversal higher with a 2,743 weekly closing stop today.
  • “Extremely” Oversold: While Oversold conditions are not a reason in isolation to buy a stock or market, the S&P 500 has only been this oversold 6 times since 1990 and is currently more oversold than the depths of the financial crisis in ’08.
  • Strong Seasonal Setup: We are entering a strong period of seasonality at the tail end of a 7% pullback, with extreme oversold readings, neutral positioning and the S&P and Russell 1000 Growth holding key long term support.
  • Rest of World Better: Unlike in January when EM and “Rest of World” were historically overbought at all-time highs with positioning heavy and sentiment euphoric, Global Markets broadly speaking are in precisely the opposite position with their currencies starting to firm; commodities like Crude, Copper and Gold beginning to work; and Tencent rallying 8% off the 150 week ma which has never been broken.
  • In Sum: The 7% correction was about 5% bigger than I thought it would be and I did not get out ahead of the recent decline, but I am getting out ahead of the tactical reversal with conviction.


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