I typically like to average down on a stock once it’s at least 5% lower than my initial purchase price. At that point, I like to nibble, open to becoming even more aggressive if the stock drops even more.Now, that’s assuming the fundamentals haven’t materially changed and the valuation is still attractive. As I’ve discussed before, price and value are extremely important to separate from one another. And a drop in price isn’t necessarily indicative of more value, as it could be warranted due to changes in the business.But nothing has changed here with WPC over the last few weeks. The stock market is like an ocean, with stocks acting like small boats rising and falling regularly, sometimes for no reason at all. WPC is a REIT and as such is somewhat sensitive to interest rates. Any whisper of a change in rates could cause the price to radically oscillate. But I don’t worry about interest rates. I worry about business performance, fundamentals, quality, brands, and long-term investing. What interest rates do from here matters nil to me. Any short-term volatility here with WPC (or other high-quality REITs) due to rumors of changing interest rates or even the manifestation of changing rates would strike me as a long-term opportunity.WPC has dropped a bit more than 4% since my purchase price, and it’s down 6.48% over the last month alone. Fine by me, as I’d prefer to buy stocks on sale. Just like I love seeing a sale on food at the grocery store, I enjoy buying stocks for less than I have to. WPC strikes me as on sale right now, so I’m eagerly buying.
I initiated my position in the company last month at $67.15, so $64.13 is even better. If it drops to $60, I’ll be interested in adding more, assuming there’s not a fundamental reason for it other than Mr. Market’s moodiness. As is stands, I increased the size of my position by 75% here.
Valuation
WPC’s P/FFO is now 14.06 after the recent slide, which I think warrants attention here. Since the P/FFO is an appropriate and useful valuation metric for REITs just like the P/E ratio is for most other stocks, one can see why a number just above 14 is attractive right now. Moreover, the P/B is well below the five-year average. And the current yield of 5.94% is almost 50 basis points higher than the five-year average, and obviously well above that of the broader market.
I valued shares using a dividend discount model analysis with an 8% discount rate and a 4% long-term dividend growth rate. That growth rate compares quite favorably to WPC’s ten-year dividend growth rate of 7.5%. And the payout ratio is 83.6%, which is common for REITs. All in all, I think WPC will most likely exceed 4% dividend growth for the foreseeable future, ensuring a margin of safety here. The DDM analysis gives me a fair value of $99.06, which means I have an additional margin of safety through the price I paid.
Conclusion
I’m incredibly happy with an opportunity to buy shares in WPC at this valuation and yield. As I previously mentioned, it’s quite rare to find a stock with a yield near 6% and a dividend growth rate well north of 7%. You just don’t find that kind of combination very often, especially attached to a high-quality business like WPC.
The fundamentals are excellent, the yield is very attractive, the firm is growing at a robust rate, and the diversification is outstanding. Count me as a happy shareholder. If WPC falls even more, I’d be interested in buying up additional shares if the capital is there and other opportunities don’t seem more pressing.
This purchase adds $57.15 to my annual dividend income, based on the current $0.9525 quarterly dividend.
