Chris Ciovacco

About the Author Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets? Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities. Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.

NYSE Composite (DJ) (NYA): History Says A Big Move Is Coming For Stocks

The chart of the NYSE Composite Stock Index below shows equities have been indecisive since the second half of 2013.

The lack of sustained progress in either direction tells us the battle between the bulls and bears has been fairly evenly matched.

1993-1995 Bullish Example

A similar indecisive period took place in the mid-1990s.

Periods of consolidation are often followed by big moves once the market “breaks out of the box”. In the 1993-95 case, the resolution was to the upside.

2006-2008 Bearish Example

A similar period of indecisive investor behavior took place between the fall of 2006 and summer of 2008.

Harder markets are typically followed by easier markets. In the 2006-08 example, the easier market produced a strong and discernible bearish trend.

S&P 500 Moving To 2,340 or 1,680?

This week’s stock market video examines the current period of indecisive investor behavior, including some visuals on what a break to the upside and downside might look like.

Big Moves Can Go Either Way

When we are in a period of long-term consolidation, it often feels like the market will never break from the range. While anything is possible, history says we should have contingency plans in place for a shocking push higher and an alarming crisis-like plunge.


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