Hale Stewart

About the Author Hale Stewart

Hale Stewart spent 5 years as a bond broker in the late 1990s before returning to law school in the early 2000s. He is currently a tax lawyer in Houston, Texas. He has an LLM from the Thomas Jefferson School of Law in domestic and international taxation where he graduated Magna Cum Laude and is also a Chartered Asset Manager, Chartered Wealth Manager and Chartered Trust and Estate Planner from the American Academy of Financial Management. He is the author of the book US Captive Insurance Law. You can read him daily at the Bonddad blog (www.bonddad.blogspot.com).

International Economic Preview For The Week Of January 12-16

The following releases will have a disproportionate impact on the market next week:


Chinese Exports: The Chinese slowdown was one of the biggest stories last year, and will continue to have important ramifications this year. While the economy is still growing at a solid rate of around 7%, there is no denying that as China’s engine slows, so too will demand for raw materials. Exports were the previous engine of Chinese growth, although, as the chart shows, that pace of increase was low during 2014.


UK CPI and PPI: With the strong UK growth rate, it’s only a matter of time before the BOE raises interest rates. But with inflation declining, the BOE has far more policy room as to when they’ll start increasing.


EU Industrial Production: While this statistic has been increasing, it has been doing so at a far lower rate than that recorded before the recession. Considering the weak reading of the Markit PMU numbers, don’t expect a strong showing.

US Retail Sales: This release will give us some insight into how strong or weak the holiday selling season was. With the solid 3Q GDP print of 5% and strong auto sales, analysts will be expecting a big number.

Japan Corporate Goods Price Index: In pumping up the monetary base, the BOJ had an easy policy win that increased inflation. However, the pace of that increase has been slowing over the last 6-8 months, so keep your eye out for a continuation of that slowdown.

Australian Unemployment: Unemployment in Australia has been slowing ticking up over the last 8 months, largely as a result of a slowdown in the ending of massive raw material projects. As with all employment reports, the inner numbers will probably be more important.


US CPI and PPI: The latest Fed Meeting Minutes implied the Fed will wait until at least the late spring before raising interest rates. However, with oil dropping sharply, expect this release (and all other CPIs released) to show a sharper slowdown, giving the central bank that much more room to maneuver.


US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: These are still two of the best coincident economic indicators used by economists. Overall US IP growth has been solid since the end of the recession.

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, blogger Hale Stewart has a total average return of -2.5% and a 33% success rate. Ranked #2985 out of 4110 Bloggers

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