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Leigh Drogen

About the Author Leigh Drogen

Leigh Drogen is the Founder and CEO of Estimize. Estimize is an open financial estimates platform which facilitates the aggregation of fundamental estimates from independent, buy-side, and sell-side analysts, along with those of industry experts, private investors and students. By sourcing estimates from a diverse community of individuals, Estimize provides both a more accurate and more representative view of expectations compared to sell side only data. Leigh started his career as a quant trader at Geller Capital, a White Plains, NY based fund where he ran strategies that looked at earnings acceleration and analyst estimate revision models, as well as price momentum and several sentiment indicators. Leigh later went on to be the founder of Surfview Capital, a New York based asset management firm that used many of the same strategies as Geller Capital, with a focus on higher beta names on an intermediate term time frame. His educational background includes focus in economics and international relations, specifically war theory. He is a graduate with honors from Hunter College in New York City. You can contact Leigh by emailing him at Leigh@estimize.com

Fossil’s Disappointing 4th Quarter And 2015 Guidance Send Investors To The Exits


Moments after the closing bell Fossil (NASDAQ:FOSL) announced its fourth quarter earnings. Top and bottom line misses have the stock getting decimated in after hours action. As of 4:30pm, shares are trading 12% cheaper.

Contributing analysts on Estimize had predicted that Fossil would report earnings of $3.11 per share, just a penny better than the Wall Street consensus of $3.10. The watchmaker’s fourth quarter profits came in 11 cents shy at $3.00 per share.

Net sales for the quarter came in flat. They would have been up 3% if it hadn’t been for currency headwinds.

Currency played its part in Fossil’s weak quarter, but it doesn’t shoulder all the blame. Fossil saw a decline in two of its three core businesses, watches and leathers. After adjusting for currency watch revenue dipped 1% and leathers decreased 2%. The company’s third most important segment, jewelry, was its sole improvement. Jewelry sales were up 13% compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

Throughout each of the first three quarters of the year, net sales of watches had increased by double digits. Estimize contributors had expected to see Fossil’s fourth quarter revenue rise 6.6% to $1.132 billion. Instead, Fossil’s sales came in flat against last year at $1.065 billion compared to $1.062 billion.

Looking forward Fossil isn’t painting all that pretty of a picture. The company posted guidance for next quarter between 59 cents per share and 69 cents per share. That’s less than half of what Wall Street was looking for, $1.25.

Fossil also says that it sees ‘significant currency impacts’ influencing its outlook for the year. That impact has Fossil guiding to a tepid profit range of $5.45 per share to $6.05 per share for 2015. Before the closing bell, the Street had been setting its sights on $7.59.