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Chris Ciovacco

About the Author Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets? Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities. Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.

Are Foreign Markets The Place To Be?


With the Federal Reserve talking about tightening policy and low rates still dominating the conversation overseas, it is prudent to keep an eye on foreign markets. While there is no doubt that central banks play a major role in investment outcomes, we cannot overlook the economic side of the coin. FromReuters:

European and Chinese factories slashed prices in January as production flatlined, heightening global deflation risks that point to another wave of central bank stimulus in the coming year. While the pulse of activity was livelier in other parts of Asia -Japan, India and South Korea – they too shared a common condition of slowing inflation.

As shown in the weekly chart below, China (NYSEARCA:FXI) has been showing leadership in the emerging markets (NYSEARCA:EEM) space.

Despite the recent QE announcement by the European Central Bank, China still has the upper hand relative to Europe (NYSEARCA:FEZ) from a weekly perspective.

In terms of adding some foreign diversification to the mix, China has had trouble breaking out convincingly relative to U.S. stocks (NYSEARCA:SPY).

Another issue is long-term resistance for China (NYSEARCA:GXC). In 2010, China failed near the blue lines below; it has struggled recently in the same area. A weekly close above the recent peak of 43.86 for FXI would improve the outlook for Chinese stocks and foreign stocks in general.

How About A Currency-Hedged Foreign Position?

This week’s stock market video takes a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly in the equity markets. Currency-hedged foreign stock ETFs are covered at the 13:06 mark.

After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.

Investment Implications – The Weight Of The Evidence

U.S. stock market bulls have little margin of error. If support can hold in the coming days, the bullish case may regain some traction. From a bearish perspective, each successive break of the levels shown below would increase concerns and the odds of a more prolonged correction.