Gal Goldring

About the Author Gal Goldring

Gal is a current student at IDC University, in Herzliya, Israel studying political science.

Biotech’s Week Ahead: MannKind Corporation (MNKD), Allergan plc Ordinary Shares (AGN), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) (TEVA), and Horizon Pharma PLC (HZNP)

It’s an eventful week ahead for pharmaceutical companies MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD), Allergan plc Ordinary Shares (NYSE:AGN), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) (NYSE:TEVA), and Horizon Pharma PLC (NASDAQ:HZNP), as analysts are anticipating these companies’ quarterly reports and speculating on game-changing drugs. Here is what to watch as each company posts earnings this week:

MannKind Corporation

MannKind Corporation, a bio-pharmaceutical focusing on products meant to treat diseases such as diabetes and cancer, is expected to report earnings Monday, May 9 after market close for the Q1:16. Analysts expect the company to post a loss per share of $(0.05) for the upcoming quarter and a loss per share of $(0.20) for the upcoming fiscal year. In the same quarter last year, MNKD posted a basic and diluted net loss per share of $(0.08), with a net loss for the previous total fiscal year of $(0.91) per share based on 406.2 million weighted average shares outstanding.

The company’s stock experienced a 61% spike in March. Analysts speculate that the reason for this impressive surge is due to the company’s short position. Short-sellers benefit when stock prices drop, and having realized the potential in MNKD, that is exactly the position investors took on MNKD. In mid-March, 44% of the stock’s total shares were shares held short, increasing volatility.

Investors will be watching for updates related to MannKind’s strategy for diabetes drug Afrezza, the only FDA-approved inhaled insulin on the market. When Mannkind’s developing partner, Sanofi, backed out of the Afrezza deal in January, Mannkind began strategizing market development on its own. Investors are hoping for an aggressive marketing of the drug and will be watching for any possible price changes. Related, investors will also be watching for the company’s relaunch efforts for Afrezza now that they officially regained the commercial rights from Sanofi. JMP Securities analyst Jason Butler weighed in on the stock with a Hold rating on April 28, 2016, shedding more light on these initiatives. The analyst notes that going forward, the company will “entail focusing on endocrinologists, increasing patient retention in the first 60 days, and continuing to increase patient access” to Afrezza. Further, he explains that the company’s relaunch strategy for the drug will be aimed at increasing patient access to the drug through a co-pay program. Butler comments, “the company anticipates stabilization of prescriptions in the coming weeks” due the relaunching of the drug.

Jason Butler is ranked #102 out of 3,904 analysts on TipRanks with a 57% success rate and a +37.7% average return.

According to TipRanks, MannKind had a Moderate Sell consensus based on analysts offering recommendations in the last three months. 25% of analysts recommend a Hold rating on the stock, while 75% recommend a Sell rating. The average price target is $0.15 with a –88.72% downside.


Allergan plc Ordinary Shares

Allergan plc. is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, May 10 before market open for Q1:16. The analyst consensus for the current quarter EPS is $3.02, compared to earnings of $4.30 per share for the same quarter last year, marking a 23% y/y increae. The consensus revenue estimate for this quarter is $3.96 billion, compared to $4.2 billion in revenue for the same quarter of last year, marking a 65% y/y increase.

Investors will be watching for updates on various drugs, as the pharmaceutical company is launching and is expected to launch a multitude of new products this year including Kybella, Viberzi, Vraylar, and Avycaz. Further, investors will be paying close attention to Namzaric, a drug launched in the second quarter of 2015 aimed at treating Alzheimer’s disease. Additionally, Allergan is on its way to finalize the sale of its generics sector to Teva Pharmaceuticals in June. The company is currently considering its generics sector as discontinued operations until the completion of Teva’s acquisition.

UBS analyst Marc Goodman shed some light on the company, reiterating a Buy rating on the stock on April 26, 2016 with a price target of $300. Goodman explains that the “world has changed and the new Allergan is a larger company with more exposure to primary care.” The analyst mentions some factors he will be watching for going forward including updates on flagship drug Botox. He states, “Botox growth will get harder without new indications because of the tougher comps as it gets larger; (3) Management still needs to demonstrate a longer track record of ‘blocking and tackling.'” However, the analyst positively indicates, “we think the stock has a chance to be a core holding, as management continues to defend Botox and invest in a solid pipeline. At minimum, we like the risk-reward on the name at the current valuation.”

According to TipRanks, Marc Goodman has a 57% success rate and a 0.07% average return. Allergan has a Moderate Buy average consensus, with 78% of analysts bullish and 22% of analysts neutral. The average price target for AGN is $302.56 with an upside of 50.04%.


Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR)

Teva Pharmaceutial Industries Ltd (ADR) is expected to report earnings on Monday, May 9 before market open. The analyst consensus for the company’s current quarter EPS estimate is $4.41. These forecasts are relatively high, considering for the same quarter of last year, the pharmaceutical company posted EPS of $1.36. The revenue consensus estimate for the upcoming quarter is $4.78 billion, resembling a 4.1% year over year decline from $4.60 billion in revenue reported for the same quarter of last year.

Teva experienced a recent decline, which may be linked to the rising competition the company is facing in its branded drug sector. Specifically, Teva’s drugs treating central nervous system (CNS) diseases are expected to reach $1.22 billion in sales during the upcoming quarter according to analyst consensus. If this forecast is accurate, the sales would represent a 1.37% year over year decline compared to sales of $1.41 billion for the same quarter last year.

Adding insult to injury, the company lost its patent for Copaxone, one of its top drugs aimed at treating multiple sclerosis. The drug was subject to rising generic competition, specifically from Novartis which was released in June 2015 and became the first ever generic version of Copaxone. Investors will be watching for how this loss will impact earnings.

In good news, the tough blow for the company will hopefully be softened due to the company’s expanding generic business, and even more prominently its recent acquirement of Allergan’s generic sector which occurred last year in a $40.5 billion dollar deal.

According to TipRanks, is rated a Strong Buy, with 80% of analysts offering a Buy recommendation, and 20% offering a Hold recommendation on the stock. TEVA has a price target of $73.61 and an upside of 46.43%.


Horizon Pharma PLC

Horizon Pharma is set to release Q1 earnings on Monday, May 9 before market open. For this quarter, analysts are expecting the specialty drug maker to post revenues of $197.73 million and earnings of $0.30 per share, compared to revenues of $113.14 million and earnings of $0.21 for the same quarter of last year.

Last month, the company provided worse than expected net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS guidance for this quarter, though reiterated its previous 2016 guidance following its January acquisition of Crealta Holdings, which added drugs Krystexxa and Migergot to the company’s portfolio, involved in treating chronic gout and vascular headaches, respectively.

This quarter, the company expects 19-20% of its FY16 net sales guidance of between $1.025 million and $1.-50 billion, along with 13-14% of its FY2016 EBITDA estimates of $505-$520 million. While these percentages may be conservative, the company expects most of its sales and EBIDTA to come in the second half of 2016. The company has also provided some prescription figures prior to earnings, reporting an 89% y/y increase in its Primary Care unit as well as a 117% increase in Rayos and a 218% y/y increase in Pennsaid 2%. Investors will be watching for seasonality impacts, sales from Actimmune, as well as the performance of its Orphan and Rheymatolgy units. Other factors to watch for include future business development plans as well as sales force increases.

Prior to earnings, analyst Irina Rivkind Koffler of Mizuho Securities weighed in on the stock, maintaining an Outperform rating on the company but decreasing her price target from $34 to $25 on May 3, 2016. She stated, “We have thoughtfully considered lowered 1Q:16 guidance introduced last month and have taken down our full year estimates below guidance and trimmed our forecasts longer term to be more conservative around discounting in the primary care business.”

According to TipRanks’ statistics, out of all the analysts who have rated the company in the past 3 months, 89% gave a Buy rating while 11% remain neutral. The average 12-month price target for stock is $30.57, marking a 128% upside from where shares last closed.

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