Benjamin Rosen

About the Author Benjamin Rosen

Originally from Pittsburgh, Ben Rosen is a student at the University of Michigan -- Ross School of Business pursuing his degree in Finance and Management. Ben came to intern for Smarter Analyst after his freshman year where he developed a strong passion for financial markets and confirmed his interest in pursuing a finance-related career. Ben is involved in a number of different organizations, including BBA Finance Club, Michigan Real Estate Club, Enactus, and the Michigan Investment Group, where he serves as sector head for the technology, media, telecommunications desk. In his free time, Ben enjoys playing sports, travelling with friends, and rooting for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Stock: Losing the Lap, Winning the Race

After a number of quiet years on the market following 2006, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) suddenly became one of tech’s biggest hits. At the onset of Q2, AMD boomed from $10 and showed no signs of decline until reaching a hump at $33 earlier this quarter. The stock has since dropped significantly, leaving many investors looking to take cover.

However, top-rated blogger Stone Fox Capital (SFC) sees a lot of value in AMD, especially at its current share price. SFC has retained its favorable view on the chip titan for a number of reasons, including the upcoming release of a highly-anticipated chip model and an increasing edge on primary competitor Intel. Furthermore, the blogger believes AMD is in as good of a position as it’s ever been, attributing the stock’s slip to a complete overreaction and misinterpretation from investors. (To watch Stone Fox Capital’s track record, click here)

Over time, the share prices of AMD and Intel have tended to correlate inversely with one another, so it came as no surprise when Intel slumped during AMD’S Q2-Q3 run. Accordingly, in September, when Bloomberg released an article suggesting Intel had made leaps and bounds on its 10-nm node, AMD’s hot streak came to an end. SFC, though, isn’t letting this announcement dilute its view on the stock. The blogger reiterates that the public too often gets engrossed in this tech rivalry, directly attributing AMD’s price drop to “misplaced market fears that Intel is roaring back to life to reinsert their dominance.” In addition to just lacking confidence in Intel, SFC also sustains the notion that many investors may have misinterpreted Bloomberg’s announcement altogether. The article claimed than 10-nm production could ramp up as early as April, before the initial June target, and reach the market by around September of next year. However, according to SFC, a large portion of investors may have confused the ramp up date with the delivery date, so once the market fully understands that a year will elapse before the 10-nm is actually released, the blogger expects AMD’s price to soon start creeping back up. Plus, once the company is relieved of external pressures, it will be able to better focus on what could be its best product in a long time.

AMD is currently in the works of finalizing its Epyc 2 chip, which the company forecasts being one of the world’s highest selling x86 chips for servers. In fact, the chip giant is so confident in its upcoming product that it anticipates its sales could bring the company’s market share back to 2004-2005 levels, equivalent to about 10% of the worldwide unit share for the x86. This increase would imply a massive 8% boost in market share in 2019 alone, which would “lead to a substantial improvement in already solid profits” in the high margin tech business. Given that the Epyc 2 lives up to its hype, SFC predicts the current positive EPS trends that “appear more like the 1990s when AMD would leapfrog the EPS of Intel” will persist.

For investors who doubt AMD’s ability to gross profits and increase in stock price, history favors the chip powerhouse. Q3 marked the third time in the last two decades that the stock has surpassed $30, so present levels are nothing new. The company traded at $40 is 2006, and SFC emphasizes its view that this number is more than attainable, especially since “[AMD] is as strong as ever and Intel appears as weak as anytime in the past.”

Net net, cautious optimism circles this semiconductor titan, as TipRanks analytics exhibit AMD as a Buy. Out of 23 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 10 are bullish on Advanced Micro Devices stock, 11 remain sidelined, and only 2 are bearish. With a return potential of nearly 2%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $28.62. (See AMD’s price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)


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