Leigh Drogen

About the Author Leigh Drogen

Leigh Drogen is the Founder and CEO of Estimize. Estimize is an open financial estimates platform which facilitates the aggregation of fundamental estimates from independent, buy-side, and sell-side analysts, along with those of industry experts, private investors and students. By sourcing estimates from a diverse community of individuals, Estimize provides both a more accurate and more representative view of expectations compared to sell side only data. Leigh started his career as a quant trader at Geller Capital, a White Plains, NY based fund where he ran strategies that looked at earnings acceleration and analyst estimate revision models, as well as price momentum and several sentiment indicators. Leigh later went on to be the founder of Surfview Capital, a New York based asset management firm that used many of the same strategies as Geller Capital, with a focus on higher beta names on an intermediate term time frame. His educational background includes focus in economics and international relations, specifically war theory. He is a graduate with honors from Hunter College in New York City. You can contact Leigh by emailing him at Leigh@estimize.com

How Cabela’s Proves That Dick’s Was Right About Hunting

Hunting and fishing retail chain Cabela’s (NYSE:CAB) reported 4th-quarter earnings Thursday. Comparable profits fell from $1.32 per share last year to $1.11 this holiday period on what the company is calling “Higher Advertising and Promotional Spend”.

Increased marketing costs may be part of the story, but that doesn’t explain the 5.5% drop in same store sales. Cabela’s pulls in more than a third of its revenue during the holiday quarter, which makes this miss mildly more painful.

Contributing analysts on Estimize had expected Cabela’s to report $1.35 in earnings per share, which is in line with Wall Street expectations. The Estimize consensus was slightly lower than the Street’s on revenue. When investors’ estimates on Estimize are lower than the Wall Street consensus, that often signals investors willing to give the company a bit of a pass. Cabela’s earnings were shockingly low, even after considering the lowered expectations.

Cabela’s isn’t the only one reporting weakness in hunting. Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) has cited headwinds in hunting as a limiting factor 3 quarters in a row. Dick’s is a larger, more diversified, and indirect competitor, but the fact that Dick’s is singling out hunting as a weak spot is not a good sign for the future.

Cabela’s CEO Tommy Millner had a more upbeat tone on the earnings call. He believes that the ramped up marketing costs will yield tangible results instantly. Millner said, “We are encouraged that comparable store sales thus far in 2015 have improved.”

“We expect to return to a low-double-digit growth rate in revenue and a high-single to low-double-digit growth rate in diluted earnings per share for full-year 2015 as compared to full-year 2014 non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.88.

Before Thursday’s report Wall Street was looking for earnings of $3.50 on the year. Cabela’s would need to record growth on pace with the upper end of its guidance to keep up with the Street’s consensus. To be exact Cabela’s will need to improve earnings by 21.5% to match the Street’s current outlook.

Cabela’s fiscal year gets off to an easy start. In the first quarter of 2015 the outdoors retailer faces off against a comp which saw earnings per share sink 49% and revenue drop 10% last year. With same store sales up in the first part of the year, Cabela’s should be able to get past the next hurdle unless we see another massive increase in ‘Higher Advertising and Promotional Spend’.

Stay Ahead of Everyone Else

Get The Latest Stock News Alerts