Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) shares were taking off almost 5% Friday, a welcome bounce-back for investors who have seen the popular Snapchat app parent company plummet about 41% over the course of the summer.
With the company readying to release second-quarter earnings, Snap’s second quarterly performance as a public company, top analyst Mark Mahaney at RBC Capital offers an encouraging preview ahead of the print.
For the second quarter, Mahaney is angling for Snap to post $206 million in total revenue with ($169 million) in adjusted EBITDA, more confident than the Street’s expectations on revenue of $194 million, but under the Street’s adjusted EBITDA forecast of ($182 million). The analyst sees Daily Active User adds hitting 7 million for the quarter, less than the Street’s projection calling for 10 million, with a total forecast of 173 million and ARPU of $1.19. However, Mahaney deems the Street’s adjusted EBITDA and DAU net add forecasts as prospectively “aggressive” for Snap.
At the end of June, Snap launched a fresh map feature called the “Snap Map,” allowing its users to tag their location on a map and share with one another- an update that the analyst takes in bullish stride. Mahaney explains this is another home run in a in a hallmark innovation game, asserting, “We view its addition as a clear positive and a key example of the type of innovation the company needs to continue to drive growth.”
Overall, in his preview, Mahaney concludes pointing to three key elements for Snap’s bigger picture: “1) Daily Active Users (DAUs) – SNAP was able to add 51MM DAUs in 2016, and we forecast that it will be able to add another 28MM over 2017. We forecast that SNAP will be able to add 7MM DAUs in Q2 (vs. Street’s 10MM expectation). 2) Average Revenue per User – ARPU is simply quarterly revenue divided by DAUs. We believe SNAP will be able to grow ARPU 138% Y/Y to $1.19 in Q2. 3) Lock-up expiration – Starting at the end of July/beginning of August (July 31st, 150 days after the IPO), a large number of shares (likely ~80% of SNAP’s total share base) will become available for sale. This has been a large overhang on the stock for the past few months given investor fears of the potential sale of shares coming off lock-up agreements post Q2 earnings.”
With Snap gearing up to deliver its quarterly financial results this Thursday, the analyst continues to bet on this social tech player, maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock with a $31 price target, which implies a 129% upside from where the shares last closed.
Mark Mahaney has a very good TipRanks score with a 73% success rate and a high ranking of #14 out of 4,628 analysts. Mahaney yields 22.7% in his annual returns. However, when recommending SNAP, Mahaney forfeits 34.1% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics indicate SNAP as a Hold. Out of 31 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 11 are bullish on Snap stock, 15 remain sidelined, and 5 are bearish on the stock. With a return potential of 51%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $20.44.