Canaccord Reduces Estimates on CalAmp Corp. (CAMP) But Remains Positive Long-Term

CalAmp Corp. (NASDAQ:CAMP) posted fiscal second-quarter results yesterday with revenue and guidance that fell short of consensus estimates. From Canaccord top analyst Michael Walkley‘s perspective, this is a reflection of soft mobile resource management (MRM) product demand when looking at the market in North America.

Though the analyst reduces estimates to account for weaker MRM demand trends in North America, Walkley remains positive on the wireless software company’s long-term prospects and therefore reiterates a Buy rating on shares of CAMP with a $25 price target, which represents a 52% increase from where the stock is currently trading.

CAMP reported second-quarter EPS of $0.27, which mirrored the Street. CAMP brought in revenue of $90.5 million, which fell below the Street’s projection of $92.26 million. The company sees guidance for third-quarter EPS in the range of $0.24 to $0.30, also short of the Street’s estimate of $0.31.

For Walkley, second-quarter revenue and EPS as well as third-quarter guidance for the fiscal year of 2017 all fell below his expectations. As a result, Walkley lowers adjusted EBITDA estimates for the fiscal year of 2017 from $58.5 million to $52.2 million and for the fiscal year of 2018 from $70.6 million to $60.7 million. Additionally, the analyst introduces his adjusted EBITDA estimate for the fiscal year of 2019 of $72.1 million.

Walkley explains, “LoJack’s revenue and contribution margins were consistent to above our expectations, and we believe the LoJack acquisition is not only accretive, but also provides a strong brand and channel to drive longer-term growth synergies for CalAmp products and solutions. We anticipate several revenue and cost synergies through the LoJack acquisition, especially for CalAmp’s recently announced new products at CTIA.”

Ultimately, “We believe CalAmp’s Wireless DataCom business is well positioned to drive F2017 and F2018 sales and earnings growth driven by steady sales to Caterpillar, ramping international sales, a growing product portfolio, an increasing list of new customer wins such as Omnitracs, anticipated growth of higher-margin recurring revenue sales, and the accretive addition of LoJack,” the analyst concludes.

According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rates based on how their calls perform, top five-star analyst Michael Walkley has achieved a high ranking #27 out of 4,200 analysts. Walkley upholds a 62% success rate and garners 15.1% in his annual returns. However, when recommending CAMP, Walkley loses 6.5% in average profits on the stock.

TipRanks analytics exhibit CAMP as a Buy. Based on two analysts polled in the last 3 months, 50% rate a Buy on CAMP, while 50% maintain a Hold. The 12-month price target stands at $20.50, marking a nearly 25% upside from where the shares last closed.


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