TherapeuticsMD (TXMD): With Access to Capital in Place, Eyes Will Likely Turn to Imvexxy Launch, Says Cantor


Cantor analyst William Tanner is out today with a research note on shares of TherapeuticsMD (NYSE:TXMD), after the women’s healthcare company announced that it has completed the first draw down of $75 million under its previously announced $200 million term loan facility with MidCap Financial. The proceeds will allow the company to advance its commercial launch of its recently approved product, Imvexxy for the treatment of moderate-to-severe dyspareunia.

TXMD can access a second $75 million tranche with the approval and launch of TX-001 (PDUFA date of October 28). The remaining $50 million balance is accessible if the company achieves $75 million in LTM combined net sales for Imvexxy and TX-001 by the end of 2019.

Tanner commented, “With access to capital in place, eyes will likely turn to Imvexxy commercial performance. We are mindful that the reasonableness of revenue estimates can influence investor sentiment around a drug launch. In that vein of thinking, we highlight that our 2018 and 2019 revenue estimates are $18.5 million and $128 million, respectively (FactSet consensus is $21 million and $160 million). Our model contemplates Imvexxy capturing approximately 4,000 (0.2%) and 130,000 (5%) of the roughly 2.6 million patients treated for VVA symptoms in 2018 and 2019, respectively.”

“We are updating our TXMD model to reflect the drawdown of the $75 million tranche. We anticipate a 2Q18 cash balance of $150 million following the 1Q18 cash balance of $107 million. We assume the company will gain access to the second and third tranches during 4Q18 and 2019, respectively, reducing its need for future dilutive equity financing. No change to our $26 price target,” the analyst continued.

Net net, Tanner reiterates an Overweight rating on TXMD stock, with a $26 price target, which implies a 250% upside from current levels. (To watch Tanner’s track record, click here)

TXMD has one of the best ratings by the Street. TipRanks reveals that the stock has a Strong Buy analyst consensus rating with 5 back-to-back buy ratings in the last three months. Meanwhile the average analyst price target of $16.40 suggests the stock has upside potential of just over 120% from the current share price for the next 12 months.

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