Oppenheimer’s Earnings Review: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), Tableau Software Inc (DATA) and FireEye Inc (FEYE)

Earnings season always brings surprises and serves as a catalyst for stocks. In light of recent reports, Oppenheimer analysts weigh in with a few insights on restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG), analytical software maker Tableau Software Inc (NYSE:DATA), and cybersecurity firm FireEye Inc (NASDAQ:FEYE).

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

For Q4, Chipotle reported EPS of $0.55, within guidance of $0.50-$0.58, but above consensus estimates of $0.54. For ’17, management excluded ’17 guidance for 20% margins and $10 EPS, but believes it could achieves these run-rates sometime in 2017.

It’s hard to say that Oppenheimer analyst Brian Bittner was impressed with the results. In fact, the analyst believes that the earnings release leaves his cautious stance unchanged.

Bittner wrote, “Caution toward shares is two-fold: 1) a disconnect exists between “normalized” EPS base (below $10) and the current stock price ($423), and 2) current sales trends imply sales/unit of $2.0M in ’17, which suggests a path back to bull-case’s $2.5M/ unit could be long, difficult and costly. Early ’17 comps are healthier given the math of January’s -36% comparisons, and the 2-year trend implies high-single digit comps for ’17 (in-line). Mgmt backed away from its formal ’17 EPS guidance ($10) earlier than we anticipated by simply excluding it from the release (and call).”

As such, the analyst reiterates a Perform rating on shares of Chipotle, without providing a price target.

According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, Bittner has a yearly average return of 11.7% and a 69% success rate. Bittner has a -5.5% average return when recommending CMG, and is ranked #69 out of 4375 analysts.

Tableau Software Inc

Tableau shares jumped over 15% today after the company topped Wall Street estimates for the fourth-quarter. The company reported revenue of $250.7 million, well above consensus estimate of $230.3 million, and EPS of $0.26 came in above consensus of $0.13.

However, while analyst Ittai Kidron acknowledges that the earnings were more positive than he expected, he remains cautious given the ratable uncertainty. As such the analyst reiterates a Perform rating on DATA.

“Tableau’s performance was better than we expected and showed improved execution with both sales efforts and cost management. Customer metrics were also strong, reinforcing our believe that Tableau’s maintaining segment leadership. We’re encouraged, but believe that Tableau needs to show that the quick recovery can be sustained,” Kidron noted.

Out of the 12 analysts polled by TipRanks (in the past 3 months), four are bullish on Tableau Software stock, seven remain sidelined, and only one analyst is bearish. With a downside potential of 8%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $51.50.

FireEye Inc

While Tableau shares are currently rising 16%, shares of FireEye took the other route falling 16% to $10.90.

For Q4, FireEye reported revenues of $184.7 million which fell short of consensus estimates of $191 million and at the low end of its guidance. Billings of $221.8 million also came in below the Street’s $240.3 million estimate.

In addition, the company announced the departure of CFO Mike Berry and Executive Chairman David DeWalt. On the negative side, investors think the management changes further lower the probability of a takeout.

Oppenheimer analyst Shaul Eyal commented, “We are discouraged by FEYE’s 4Q16 revenue outlook, but remain constructive regarding its path to profitability initiatives. We believe valuation of 1.85x EV/FY18 revenue may suit strictly long-term investors who might view FEYE as creating shareholder value through potential strategic transactions.”

As such, Eyal reiterates an Outperform rating on shares of FireEye, while lowering his price target to $23 (from $28), which implies an upside of 113% from current levels.

According to TipRanks, analyst Shaul Eyal has a yearly average return of 10.6% and a 61% success rate. Eyal has a -20.7% average return when recommending FEYE, and is ranked #97 out of 4375 analysts.

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