NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock: On Course But Fully Valued

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is on course to deliver outstanding earnings this coming Thursday, according to Roth Capital analyst Brian Alger. The analyst points out that his meetings with management at CES confirmed enormous, if unquantifiable, upside potential from the datacenter and automotive segments. Additionally, both of NVDA’s peers in gaming reported solid end market demand.

However, Alger downgrades NVDA stock from Buy to Neutral as he struggles to articulate a valuation-driven for the stock meaningfully above current trading levels. The analyst’s current price target stands at $120.

Alger wrote, “Our decision to downgrade NVDA to Neutral is purely driven by our inability to confidently model material upside to our current projections. As it is, in FY:18 we expect Gaming to grow ~24%, Datacenter to grow ~50%, and Automotive to grow ~7%. We even expect Pro Visualization to grow. We note this is on top of a FY:17 that we expect to have grown ~37% Y/Y. Could Datacenter maintain its triple digit growth? Could Automotive, again grow north of 50%? Yes, we believe the end markets are big and dynamic enough that growth could be that strong. We just can’t model it with any level of conviction at this point.”

According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Alger has a yearly average return of 27% and a 72% success rate. Alger has a 104.1% average return when recommending NVDA, and is ranked #100 out of 4374 analysts.

Out of the 27 analysts polled in the past 12 months, 17 rate Nvidia stock a Buy, eight rate the stock a Hold, while two recommend to Sell. With a downside potential of nearly 3%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $111.33.

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