It’s a good day to be an investor in shares of TubeMogul Inc (NASDAQ:TUBE) and Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:SHAK), as these stocks are taking off! Yet, why did one of Wall Street’s best-performing analysts downgrade TUBE and lessen the price target when investors are out celebrating? Why does Jefferies believe strong fourth-quarter guidance is not enough to shake his sidelined stance? Let’s take a closer look:
TubeMogul stock is skyrocketing almost 82% amid this morning’s news that Adobe will be acquiring the advertising software maker for $14 per share in a cash deal. Yet, top analyst Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray downgrades to a Neutral rating on shares of TUBE while pulling back on the price target from $17 to $14 to reflect the Adobe acquisition price.
Munster believes, “We view the acquisition as a solid outcome for TUBE as it will join a company where it can help lead adtech efforts. Separately, the company reported Q3 earnings yesterday and beat Street revenue expectations by 3% as it worked through its issues around mobile viewability in Q3. The company did guide Q4 revenue down about 1% at its midpoint, but confirmed that it expects the viewability headwind to be over by the end of Q4, in-line with prior expectations. We are downgrading shares to Neutral with a $14 target given the acquisition announcement and commensurate stock move.”
Though TUBE also released third-quarter earnings, the analyst opines that the “quarter report takes back seat to Adobe news.” The company brought in $56.1 million in revenue, which was a 3% beat to the Street’s $54.5 million. EBITDA was a loss of $300k, another beat compared to consensus projection of a loss of $3.6 million. Meanwhile, total spend saw a 34% year-over-year increase and was up from last quarter.
For fourth quarter, TUBE management posted revenue guidance in the range of $66 to $68 million, 1% shy of the Street’s $67.8 million. TUBE had guided third-quarter EBITDA to $6 to $8 million, compared to consensus of $5.8 million. In light of the guide, the analyst has reduced fourth-quarter revenue by 1%, but tweaks his 2017 revenue projection a nudge upward. The analyst’s 2018 estimates anticipate 10% year-over-year revenue growth as well as 18% year-over-year total spend growth.
“While we are making adjustments to our model, we expect the Adobe acquisition to close in Q117 as the company stated. We do not believe another buyer would step in with a higher acquisition offer at this point,” Munster contends.
Gene Munster has a very good TipRanks score with a 63% success rate and he stands at #8 out of 4,205 analysts. Munster realizes 16.0% in his annual returns. However, when recommending TUBE, Munster loses 32.8% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics exhibit TUBE as a Hold. Out of 8 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 2 are bullish on TubeMogul stock and 6 remain sidelined. With a loss potential of nearly 8%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $12.83.
Shake Shack Inc
Shake Shack shares are soaring close to 16% after the fast casual restaurant chain delivered a nice third-quarter with a promising outlook for 2017 that has investors excited. Jefferies analyst Andy Barish finds the print “solid,” but remains cautious moving forward and reiterates a Hold rating on SHAK while raising the price target from $36 to $38 amid bolstered 2017 EBITDA estimates.
Though Barish has lifted 2017 EPS projections, he adds that the “robust” guidance is not enough to sway him from his position on the sidelines.
SHAK posted EPS of $0.15, which the analyst point out is “a penny above us/cons with slightly lower rest level margins of 28.8%, showed growth of 25% y-o-y. Nevertheless, with SSS at ‘just’ 2.9% (on top of 17.1%) there is lessening likelihood of significant upside surprises from here with increasing labor/G&A investment. Guide for ’17 appears robust on top-line.”
“Mgmt is more cautious on the labor line and G&A going fwd, as it invests in quality people and infrastructure (tech) to handle an increasing number of unit openings in the near-term. Thus our rlm down in 4Q/’17 and G&A increases, although offset by higher than estimated revenue growth, resulting in a slight increase to our ’17 EBITDA estimates. The company may be conservative, but it seems to us that upside surprises may be a bit tougher to come by going fwd,” Barish concludes, wary that margins will not only be “a bit tougher” down the road, but that they “may persist.”
According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, four-star analyst Andy Barish is ranked #527 out of 4,205 analysts. Barish has a 51% success rate and gains 6.0% in his yearly returns. When suggesting SHAK, Barish earns 0.0% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics demonstrate SHAK as a Hold. Based on 6 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 2 rate a Buy on SHAK, 2 maintain a Hold, while 2 issue a Sell. The 12-month price target stands at $38.83, marking a 1% upside from where the shares last close.