Morgan Stanley and Stifel are out with confident standpoints on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA). However, while one analyst sees fit to boost the price target on Apple even amid rising apprehension regarding China performance drag, another analyst cuts just slightly the price target on Ambarella ahead of fiscal fourth-quarter results due next week. Let’s dive in:
Apple’s Bullish Side of the China Spectrum
Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty is seeing a different side of the China coin when it comes to Apple concerns. Therefore, not only does Huberty maintain a bullish perspective on the tech giant amid naysayers predicting China drag on results, the analyst reiterates an Overweight rating on AAPL while lifting the price target from $150 to $154, which represents a just under 13% increase from where the shares last closed.
In fact, the analyst anticipates China will “contribute outsized growth” in the fiscal year of 2018, leading her to raise her 2018 iPhone projection to $260 million. Huberty expects a base case of 72 million iPhone shipped in China during the fiscal year of 2018, which marks a 27 million increase from the present run-rate. Juxtaposed against the Street, the analyst is more bullish, as the Street expects a 19 million global iPhone unit surge during fiscal 2018, which she believes points to “meaningful upside.” Though the analyst’s expectations outperform consensus of 241 million, she boosts them further to 260 million, which subsequently raises her EPS to $11, also ahead of consensus of $10.13. This estimate assumes 21% year-over-year growth and falls accordingly in the low-end of the 20 to 30% growth range Huberty has detected from supply chain checks.
Overall, “Our detailed analysis of aged iPhones, loyalty rates, and purchase intention share for different smartphone brands in China leads us to believe there are two key drivers to growth in FY18. First, a much larger base of aged iPhones sets up for significant upgrades. 2015 was a blockbuster year for iPhone adoption in China. It was the first year that a revolutionary iPhone was available on the China Mobile network, the largest in China. As a result, the upgradeable base of iPhone users, which we measure as iPhones purchased two years ago more than doubles from the last supercycle (iPhone 6). Even after applying Apple’s 74% retention rate […] expected upgrades of 43M double from 2016. Second, counter to market belief our analysis suggests Apple is positioned to take net users from local Chinese smartphone brands. In fact, our survey work suggests one in five local Chinese branded smartphone users will switch to iPhone upon their next purchase,” Huberty surmises.
According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, five-star analyst Kathryn Huberty is ranked #316 out of 4,490 analysts. Huberty has a 63% success rate and realizes 11.7% in her yearly returns. When suggesting AAPL, Huberty yields 23.0% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics show AAPL as a Strong Buy. Based on 35 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 28 rate a Buy on AAPL while 7 maintain a Hold. The 12-month average price target stands at $141.55, marking a nearly 4% upside from where the stock is currently trading.
Ambarella: Price Target Reduced Ahead of 4Q Earnings
Top analyst Kevin Cassidy at Stifel still anticipates Ambarella will deliver a standout performance next Tuesday, February 28th. However, Cassidy predicts amid industry checks that high-end revenue guidance is on the horizon. Ahead of the fiscal fourth-quarter print, the analyst reiterates a Buy rating on shares of AMBA while reducing the price target from $84 to $82, which represents an almost 48% increase from where the stock is currently trading.
For the fiscal fourth quarter, the analyst looks for an outclass with a surge in earnings. Additionally, the analyst expects the chip maker to post revenue circling the top of outlook for $84 million to $87 million.
“Based on our industry checks, certain drone production issues were resolved during the January quarter. Also, SONY’s CMOS sensor production constraints for high performance cameras have returned to full production capacity. We have pulled forward drone-related revenue from the 1QFY18 to 4QFY17. Additionally we reduced our expectations for 4K video broadband infrastructure build out though our estimates remain above consensus. What we believe will be most important during this quarter’s report is management’s commentary on its Computer Vision (CV) SoC progress. We see CV as transforming Ambarella from a video SoC player that has enabled many new video applications to a leader in artificial intelligence for security and wearable cameras, drones and automobiles. We continue recommending the AMBA shares for its growth in video markets and artificial intelligence future,” Cassidy contends.
Kevin Cassidy has a very good TipRanks score with a 73% success rate and a high ranking of #43 out of 4,456 analysts. Cassidy garners 24.4% in his annual returns. When recommending AMBA, Cassidy gains 23.6% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics demonstrate AMBA as a Buy. Out of 8 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 5 are bullish on Ambarella stock and 3 remain sidelined. With a return potential of nearly 33%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $73.67.