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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Get Ready for Some Upside Come 1Q18 Earnings Show, Predicts Rosenblatt

Rosenblatts' Hans Mosesmann is especially upbeat on AMD's new Ryzen models, in what he calls a record for the chip giant's "most prolific new product ramp" to date.


In a confident first quarter earnings preview for 2018, Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann calls for a beat from Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) come April 25th– along with a robust second quarter guide. With the company firing up steam for new Ryzen products in an exciting product ramp and eyes on the volatile crypto factor, Mosesmann keeps betting his bullish chips behind this tech player.

As such, the analyst reiterates a Buy rating on AMD stock with a $27 price target, which implies a 168% upside from current levels. (To watch Mosesmann’s track record, click here)

Look for this chip giant to hand over modest upside to Mosesmann’s sales projections for a 4.7% quarter-over-quarter rise to $1.55 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.08, thanks to sustained momentum in Ryzen and EPYC CPUs. In terms of AMD’s graphics processing unit (GPU) segment, the analyst looks for the giant to meet expectations amid seasonal gaming as well as strength in Crypto, albeit momentum that is winding down.

Mosesmann writes, “2Q18 outlook should support if not exceed ours and consensus low-single digit q/q sales growth with continued momentum in Ryzen/EPYC CPUs, decelerating GPU crypto, and mid-to-high single digit growth on game consoles (note linearity here has changed for 2018 on a new revenue recognition accounting change).”

From the analyst’s latest trip to China, data points are pointing to third quarter crypto mining card orders for the giant, including Bitmain Ethereum. Additionally, it appears Xilinx and its Cannan Avalon bitcoin has been delayed to the fourth quarter amid the cards’ price cuts, where average selling prices (ASPs) are hovering around $280. The GPU segment takes a roughly 33% slice of the BOM.

Bigger picture, “The crypto market dynamic is consistent with our modeling for a lower sales exposure from AMD’s current mid-single digits as the year progresses. Interestingly, Bitmain’s move to an Ethereum ASIC solution in July from AMD GPUs is expected to be gradual. In CPUs we see AMD ramping new Ryzen mobile, desktop, commercial, and refreshed models in was it perhaps the most prolific new product ramp in the history of the company with over 60 new OEM platform/SKUs,” surmises Mosesmann.

TipRanks reveals healthy optimism circulating around the chip giant. Out of 19 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 10 are bullish on AMD stock, 5 remain sidelined, while 4 are bearish on the stock. Notably, the 12-month average price target stands at $14.78, marking 46% in return potential for the stock.