National Securities: 3 Stocks to Watch for a Market Bottom


Where is the bottom? This is a question most investors would like the answer for, in these volatility charged times. It is impossible to know, although National Securities’ chief market strategist Art Hogan believes that before coronavirus cases will peak in the US, the bottom will be in for stocks. The analyst expects US markets to stabilize, once the peak is reached in Italy, because by then, investors will know what to expect. “Then,” Hogan said, “You see the other side of the valley.”

With this in mind, the analysts at National Securities have been evaluating some beaten down names under the firm’s coverage, and we have followed suit.

Here are three stocks the investment firm believes are going for cheap right now. We used TipRanks’ data to find out what the rest of the Street makes of the choices. As it happens, all currently boast Strong Buy consensus ratings and, what’s more, all are forecast to add at least 60% of muscle in the year ahead. Let’s check them out.

Inseego Corp (INSG)

The new narrative written by coronavirus has altered the plot for a large amount of publicly traded companies. You can firmly place count IoT specialist Inseego in this bracket. By the start of 2020, the company’s share price had appreciated by more than 250% over the preceding two years. As with the broader market, the last 30 days have pulled the stock back significantly. Year-to-date INSG has declined by 30%, roughly in line with the S&P 500’s fortunes.

The Street has high expectations for the IoT sector, and has evidently been backing Inseego. The company’s IoT solutions power fleets, devices, and assets. With 5G ramping up, 20 trials currently in place with leading carriers and a large pipeline to boot, the company is at the forefront of the new paradigm. But as with many growth-oriented companies, Inseego operates at a loss.

The company’s latest quarterly statement was soft on a number of metrics. EPS came in at -$0.10, below the Street’s call for- $0.8. Revenue fell year-over-year by 6.6% to $52.3 million, although the figure did beat the estimate by $0.42 million.

National Securities’ Matthew Galinko remains firmly in the 5G specialist’s corner. The 5-star analyst said,  “INSG continues to build a pipeline of customers trialing its second generation 5G devices expected to launch in 2H:20. If successful, we believe the company will capture a growth cycle, drive a more profitable product mix, and significantly diversify the customer base.”

Therefore, Galinko upgrades Inseego from Neutral to Buy while keeping his $6.50 price target in place. The figure represents possible upside of 28%. (To watch Galinko’s track record, click here)

It appears the Street is unanimous in its current sentiment toward INSG. A Strong Buy consensus rating breaks down into 6 sole Buy ratings. At an average price target of $8.60, the upside potential is a strong 70%. (See Inseego stock analysis on TipRanks)

AgroFresh Solutions (AGFS)

A glance at AgroFresh Solutions’ fortunes in the market in 2020 makes for uncomfortable viewing. The microcap is down by a vicious 55% year-to-date. The performance is an extension of 2019, when despite the market’s exuberance, AGFS stock was left out of the party, shedding 30% over the year. So, after such a prolonged decline, are there any there any blue skies on the horizon for the produce freshness-solutions company?

There are, according to National Securities’ Ben Klieve. The analyst contends it all depends on debt financing. AGFS ended FY19 with $29 million in cash and $403 million in debt, which mostly needs to be paid back by July 2021. According to company management, there are currently a few options in place, and refinancing should be done by June 30. “We believe the weakness seen in share prices over the last 24 months has been due to the debt position, and as such we believe completion of the refinancing can be a significant catalyst for the stock,” said Klieve.

What stands AgroFresh in good stead, too, is its lack of exposure to China in its supply chain. All the company’s produce is sourced domestically, which means the operations and financials shouldn’t be impacted by the coronavirus.

Klieve added, “While we make no attempt to time the bottom of the market in the current environment, we believe AGFS is an attractive candidate for a significant rebound when markets stabilize given its stable financial outlook, the debt refinancing catalyst and current multiples.”

Accordingly, Klieve reiterates a Buy on AGFS, along with a price target of $5.5. Investors can expect returns in the shape of a humongous 378%, should the target be met over the next 12 months. (To watch Klieve’s track record, click here)

Only two other analysts have thrown the hat in with a view on the fresh produce specialist over the last three months, although both agree with Klieve, and publish Buy ratings. Therefore, AGFS receives a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target is, like Klieve’s, $5.5. (See AgroFresh stock analysis on TipRanks)

Identive Group (INVE)

Identive provides physical security and secure identification to clients in various sectors, including banking, healthcare, and government, amongst others. The company operates through two main segments: Identity and Premises.

2020 hasn’t been much kinder to the security software specialist than it has been to AgroFresh. The fellow microcap’s share price is down by 47% year-to-date.

A light recent quarterly report hasn’t helped, either. Revenue of $19 million, indicated a year-over-year decline of 11% and came in 18% lower than the prior quarter’s figure. Although, on the positive end of the scale, revenue for FY19 increased by 7% to a record $83.8 million, while sales for from the Premises segment grew by 20% to $41.6 million. Software and Services came in at $11.3 million, an increase by 27%.

Although National Securities’ Matthew Galinko (who also covers Inseego) admits the results “continue to be somewhat lumpy and difficult to predict,” the 5-star analyst argues “the mix of software and recurring revenue should climb in the coming quarter and years.” The analyst also notes that management “tweaking the cost structure” alongside a trend of revenue scaling up, while keeping expenses under control, should provide Identive with “strong expansion to the bottom line.”

But, what does it mean for investors? Gailnko reiterates a Buy, alongside a $6 price target. From current levels, the upside potential comes in at a handsome 103%.

With three additional Buy ratings provided by Street analysts over the last 3 months, the consensus is that the security software specialist is a Strong Buy. investors could be taking home a massive 168% gain, should the average price target of $7.75, be met over the coming months. (See Identiv price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)

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