Evolus (EOLS) Stock Just Got a Major Face-Lift; Mizuho Analyst Weighs In

Congrats. Evolus (EOLS) is the first company to win FDA approval for a neurotoxin that is considered biosimilar to branded Botox for the treatment of glabellar lines (forehead wrinkles). Multiple Phase III trials confirm that the company’s Jeuveau provides almost identical dosing and patient response as branded Botox. The FDA approval sent the company’s shares skyrocketing over 25% in Tuesday’s trading session.

In reaction, Mizuho analyst Irina Rivkind Koffler reiterates a Buy rating on Evolus, with a price target of $25, which implies a slight downside from current levels. (To watch Koffler’s track record, click here)

Koffler commented, “This was a widely anticipated event for both Evolus and Allergan, but we still expect the stock to react positively on the news due to investor concerns about government shutdown and associated delays. Jeuveau is essentially interchangeable with Botox Cosmetic to injecting physicians, and we believe doctors will be extremely receptive to a new “frictionless” and lower-cost Botox alternative. Mgmt. previously guided to becoming the #2 toxin within two years of launch, and we believe that Evolus will initially attempt to capture share from Galderma’s Dysport rather than Allergan’s Botox Cosmetic. We expect the company to hold an investor event to further discuss its launch plans this spring, which could be the next catalyst to the stock. Additionally, EU approval is expected mid-year.”

“We model $19.2M in U.S. sales in 2019 growing to $300.4M in 2026 (with contribution from the OUS market beginning in 2020). We expect most 2019 sales to occur in 4Q:19. We model global 2026 sales of $375.5M. We expect Jeuveau will be offered at discounted pricing to Botox, with Evolus benefiting from the strong growth trends in the aesthetic market,” the analyst added.

All in all, Wall Street loves Evolus. TipRanks tracking of 4 analyst ratings on the company shows a consensus Strong Buy, with all 4 recommending Buy. The average price target is $28.50, representing a 10% upside from current levels. (See EOLS’ price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)

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