Etsy Stock Skyrocketed After Earnings; Analyst Upgrades the Stock to Outperform


Last year, Etsy (ETSY) went against the overall trend. Following three years of spectacular growth, Etsy stock exited 2019 down by nearly 5%. With the coronavirus playing havoc on markets all over the world right now, it appears Etsy is playing the contrarian again; Back to its old ways, posting exceptional earnings results and beating the market. As of writing, Esty stock is up by 13%, following an exuberant reaction to yesterday’s 4Q results.

So, why is everyone so impressed? Etsy’s Revenue in Q4 was up by 35% to $269.9 million, beating the estimate’s $264.9 million. Earnings of $0.25 per share left the analysts’ call for $0.16 in the dust. Additionally, Etsy ended the quarter with 46.4 million active buyers, indicating 17.5% year-over-year growth, while also boasting 2.70 million active sellers, an increase of 27.6%. Looking ahead, there was further good news; Etsy estimates FY20 revenue to come in between $1.04 billion to $1.06 billion vs. the Street’s call for $1.02 billion.

As the fifth most visited e-commerce website in the US, in contrast to many other fast-growing companies, Etsy is actually turning a profit. Most of the worries last year concentrated on whether the company can sustain the growth, as gross profit margins narrowed and EPS fell in line with expectations, instead of routinely trouncing them, while the previous quarter’s results exhibited the company’s first revenue miss in eight quarters. Last year, though, Etsy laid down the groundwork for further growth with a focus on a better seller experience, improving marketing and a heavy investment in technology. As the latest results can attest to, the strategy is working.

Oppenheimer’s Jason Helfstein thinks so, too. The 5-star analyst is among the many impressed with the latest results. In fact, following a closer inspection of the print, Helfstein upgraded his rating on Etsy from Perform to Outperform, with a price target of $64. This conveys his belief that Etsy can add a further 10% to the share price over the next year. (To watch Helfstein’s track record, click here)

Helfstein noted, “Etsy smartly pivoted its seller leadgen strategy to an outcome-based model, resetting Etsy Ads to Promoted Listing, to the delight of sellers, which should push take-rates >20% over time and closer to SHOP/AMZN for SMB sellers. In addition, 4Q local sales tax headwinds were lower than expected, driving organic GMV +20% y/y vs. 22% in 3Q. Meanwhile, change to lead-gen (Etsy Ads & OffSite Ads) removes ’20E margin pressure. While buyer growth slowed in 4Q on marketing toward existing users, management expects new marketing to drive FY20 buyer growth. Raising our ‘20/21E revenue 1%/3% and EBITDA 4%/8%, respectively. Our price target assumes 4.9x ‘21E revenue, aided by cash generated from positive working capital.”

All in all, the Street remains bullish on Etsy’s prospects. 8 Buys, 1 Hold and 1 sell published by the analysts over the last three months coalesce into a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The average price target comes in at $61.73 and implies possible gains in the shape of 8%. (See Etsy stock analysis on TipRanks)

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