Oppenheimer Cuts Price Target on TubeMogul Inc (TUBE), But Remains Bullish; Here’s Why

TubeMogul Inc (NASDAQ:TUBE) posted second-quarter financial results on Monday in the midst of a quarter that saw the industry transition from Flash to HTML5. From Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein‘s perspective, this leads to short-term “viewable” mobile inventory dislocation. Though Helfstein maintains an Outperform rating, he cuts the price target from $18 to $14.

TUBE revenue fell 4% below Helfstein’s estimate as well as consensus. Earnings were within guidance, with margins 120bps ahead of Helfstein’s projection and 24bps under the Street. Guidance for third quarter fell 7% below consensus. Additionally, TubeMogul lowered guidance for the fiscal year by 6%. Helfstein believes, “Lowered guidance represents lost spend as budgets move to other ‘viewable’ sources.” However, revenue guidance for the fiscal year shows a 21% increase in year-over-year growth.

Meanwhile, a reduction of ’16E/’17E EBITDA by $9 million and $12 million reveals a reaction to slower growth and margin deleverage. However, Helfstein notes potential upside for fourth quarter from sustained growth from Facebook and Instagram advertising, as well as the launch of the Twitter video in June. With Snapchat joining TUBE’s social media table later this year, social spending has increased by 11x in year-over-year.

Helfstein comments, “As premium advertisers and agencies shift TV spend online, they are increasingly requiring 3P “viewability” metrics on all ad buys. As a result, TUBE was not able to source enough “viewable” mobile inventory in 2Q. This is unrelated to non-human traffic (ad fraud), which TUBE software can detect. We view this headwind as a short term issue as publishers have a financial incentive to fix the code, or lose out on high CPM brand spending.”

According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, five-star analyst Jason Helfstein is ranked #286 out of 4,110 analysts. Helfstein maintains a solid success rate of 54% and realizes 7.4% in his yearly returns. However, when recommending TUBE, Helfstein faces 13.4% in average losses on the stock.

TipRanks analytics exhibit TUBE as a Strong Buy. Based on 10 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 8 rate a Buy on TubeMogul while 2 maintain a Hold. The consensus price target stands at $15.44, marking a 55% upside from where the stock is currently trading.

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