Deutsche Bank Changes Rating and Price Target for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) and Under Armour Inc (UA)

Yesterday, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shares fell 10% after what Deutsche Bank deems as yet “another challenging quarter” with a subsequent price target slash and Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA) shares fell 3% as Deutsche Bank heads to the sidelines on back of the company’s third-quarter earnings release on Tuesday. Let’s see why investor sentiment has reacted negatively to these quarterly prints:

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Chipotle’s third-quarter earnings are anything less than stellar with growth levels dropping, leaving Deutsche Bank analyst Brett Levy bearish on its difficult future ahead. In reaction, the analyst reiterates a Sell rating on shares of CMG while chopping the price target from $340 to $280, which represents a nearly 7% downside from current levels.

The burrito chain reported quite a decline from this time last year’s earnings of $144.9 million at $4.59 per share for a third-quarter net income this year of $7.8 million at $0.27 per share. Revenue experienced a 14.8% dip to $1.04 billion, an underperformance of expectations. Operating EPS of $0.56 considerably underperformed the Street’s projection of $1.58. Meanwhile, same store sales (SSS) fell 21.9% with traffic waning 15%, another miss.

Levy asserts, “Looking past the sales/operational challenges experienced in 3Q16, Chipotle’s top brass discussed a number of its recent achievement s and offered up its game plan, in hopes of revitalizing sales and profits and regaining its competitive dominance. While management is taking significant and positive steps to transition into a better positioned company (led by technology and data insights), we do not believe the progress will be easy or consistent. Although CMG now faces easy comparisons, we remain skeptical that it has enough momentum to overcome its internal issues or the external challenges.”

“We continue to rate CMG’s shares Sell as its newly described roadmap does not change our view that this once dominant concept is facing an uphill battle to regain its prior position (sales, profits, valuation),” Levy concludes.

According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate, two-star analyst Brett Levy has a 43% success rate and realizes 0.3% in his yearly returns. When recommending CMG, Levy yields 5.9% in average profits on the stock.

TipRanks analytics exhibit CMG as a Hold. Based on 21 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 7 rate a Buy on CMG, 8 maintain a Hold, while 6 issue a Sell. The 12-month price target stands at $405.53, marking a 10% upside from where the shares last closed.screen-shot-10-27-16-at-02-38-pm

Under Armour Inc

Under Armour just delivered a third-quarter report that has Deutsche Bank analyst Dave Weiner concerned for the sporting apparel giant’s profit profile prospects. As such, the analyst downgrades from a Buy to a Hold rating on UA with a price target of $32, which represents just under a 1% increase from where the shares last closed.

For its September 2015 Investor Day, the giant had provided three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) plans of revenues of 25% and EBIT of 23%. However, upon releasing earnings, UA’s corporate team also lowered revenue growth for both 2017 and 2018 to “low 20%” and for the analyst, UA “surprisingly” cut EBIT growth to “midteen,” which Weiner finds disconcerting.

In the third financial quarter, UA’s apparel revenue saw an 18% increase to $1.02 billion. Net income reached $128.23 million, which grew from $100.48 million one year prior. UA posted EPS of $0.29, beating consensus expectations of $0.25 and revenue of $1.47 billion, which slightly topped consensus of $1.46 billion. Yet, the company’s quarterly sales growth was its most sluggish in a six-year arc. Gross margins fell from 48.8% last year to 47.5% for this quarter.

Weiner notes, “While ~22% rev. growth is robust, relative to our forecast (we already had flat GM) mgmt. is taking a more aggressive pace with investments. Candidly, none of the expense initiatives about which mgmt. spoke were a surprise; but they are being implemented faster than expected. In our view, this changes the out-year ~15% l-t OM glide-path from ‘relatively stable’ to down meaningfully (110bp through 2018 to 7.9%) before reverting higher.”

“With UA trading at 48x ’17 EPS, this newly-introduced ‘V-shaped’ profit profile limits outsized multiples and puts investors at bay for EPS reacceleration. D/G balances UA’s now slower medium-term profit trajectory and muted multiple expansion with strong global share gains,” Weiner contends.

According to TipRanks, four-star analyst Dave Weiner is ranked #955 out of 4,197 analysts. Weiner has a 48% success rate and earns 3.6% in his annual returns. When recommending UA, Weiner gains 5.4% in average profits on the stock.

TipRanks analytics demonstrate UA as a Buy. Based on 22 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 9 rate a Buy on UA, 12 maintain a Hold, while 1 issues a Sell. The consensus price target stands at $40.88, marking a nearly 29% upside from where the stock is currently trading.screen-shot-10-27-16-at-02-39-pm

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