InvenSense Inc (NYSE:INVN) published its fiscal first-quarter earnings after market close on August 4. Canaccord analyst Matthew Ramsay weighed in with bullish sentiments, reiterating a Buy rating while lowering his price target from $19 to $15. Overall, the analyst believes InvenSense shares represent an attractive opportunity for long-term investors despite the company currently facing a tough near-term macro environment.
In terms of earnings, the semiconductor giant posted “strong top-line growth.” Revenue was up 59% year-over-year, while the company saw broad “6-axis gyro sales and faster than expected ramp in OIS module sales.” Specifically, the company posted revenue of $106.3 million, beating Ramsay’s estimate of $102.5 million. Moreover, “Non-GAAP gross margin of 44.6% decreased 130 basis points Q/Q and 500 basis points Y/Y as expected with much greater revenue concentration to large customers Apple and Samsung,” which now combine to 61% of INVN total sales. Non-GAAP EPS clocked in at $0.14, also above Ramsay’s estimates, “and operating margin improved Y/Y by 130 bps driven by strong top-line growth that overcame the decline in gross margin.”
Management provided quarter two guidance that was much softer than the analyst anticipated. InvenSense forecasts September quarter revenue of $110 million, “with flat Q/Q gross margin of 44.5% versus consensus of $115M in sales.” Furthermore, September quarter non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.14 was well below Ramsay’s $0.20 “despite strong OIS attach rates “as InvenSense likely lost the Samsung Note5 6-axis gyroscope socket to competitor STMicro.”
During the earnings webcast, management articulated worries over the mixed macro environment, predominantly pointing to weakness in China. Ramsay states, “While we anticipate solid top-line growth of 19.3% Y/Y in F2016 due to strong gyroscope and OIS growth in China and a full-year of iPhone contributions, we expect gross margin to remain well below the low-50s target range due to customer concentration.”
Additionally, Ramsay now sees decelerating top-line growth to possibly “the low teens with share losses at Samsung offsetting OIS penetration increases and growth in nascent IoT and automotive markets.”
Ramsay concludes, “InvenSense’s very strong market position in MEMS-based gyroscope motion sensors for mid- and high-tier mobile devices should drive solid sales and earnings growth over the next several years due to strong sales to top customer Apple, lower but still strong market share at Samsung, increasing gyroscope and OIS adoption at Chinese OEMs, and new mobile device sensor opportunities.”
Ramsay’s bullish valuation and $15 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 18x his F2017E non-GAAP EPS of $0.85.
Matt Ramsay has rated InvenSense a total of 6 times since September 2014. Overall, the analyst has a 53% success rate recommending stocks and a +7.2% average return per recommendation when measured over a one-year horizon and no benchmark.
Out of 2 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 1 is bullish on InvenSense and 1 is neutral. The average 12-month price target for InvenSense is $29, marking a 55.52% potential upside from where the stock last closed. On average, the all-analyst consensus for InvenSense is Hold.