This Top Analyst Heads to Sidelines on Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc (MACK) as Onivyde Sales Misses Consensus

Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:MACK) shares are down over 8% this morning, after the cancer drug maker reported second-quarter results, with net Onivyde sales of $12.9 million missed consensus of $17 million. However, total revenue in 2Q16 was $33.7 million, meeting consensus of $33.4 million due to variations in collaboration revenue recognition.

Reacting was Cowen analyst Eric Schmidt, which downgraded Merrimack shares from Outperform to Market Perform. In addition, the analyst lowered his 2016-2020 Onivyde revenue projection from $100MM, $225MM, $300MM, $375MM and $400MM to $58MM, $90MM, $120MM, $145MM and $170MM.

Schmidt commented, “Although management maintains that it is pleased with the drug’s launch and remains confident in Onivyde’s peak market potential, we are disappointed by the early deceleration in sales growth. In our experience, oncology drugs ramp up quickly, and the Q2 sales miss suggests that either the gem-refractory pancreatic cancer market is smaller than we had modeled or that Merrimack’s commercial efforts are not having the desired impact. The company has taken action to reaccelerate Onivyde’s trajectory (see below), but until evidence of an improved trajectory become apparent, we think it prudent to cut our estimates.”

Schmidt has a very good TipRanks score with a 57% success rate and he stands at #42 out of 4,090 on the analyst leaderboard. Schmidt has a yearly average return of 23.6% and 22% average return when recommending MACK.

Out of the 7 analysts polled by TipRanks, 5 rate Merrimack stock a Buy, while 2 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 130%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $13.60.

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