Roth Capital Downgrades and Cuts Price Target on Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) Following Phase III Failure

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:TNXP) has been left to discontinue its program for fibromyalgia-treating pipeline drug Tonmya in the wake of phase 3 data that revealed the drug failed to meet its primary endpoint. Instead, the biotech firm will opt to fully devote focus to taking its PTSD program into phase 3 trials.

In reaction, Roth Capital analyst Scott Henry downgrades Tonix shares from a Buy to a Neutral rating “during this re-evaluation process,” while reducing the price target to $1.25/share. Additionally, Henry has adjusted estimates, cutting all Tonmya revenues and lowering R&D spending as a reflection of the removal, now valuing Tonmya at $0/share.

Henry notes, “TNXP ended 2Q16 with ~$31M in cash. By our math, that could run through 2017 and possibly into 2018. This probably does not get the company to the first phase 3 readout for the PTSD program.”

From the analyst’s standpoint, a great deal of pressure hinges upon the success of the “key remaining” PTSD program for pipeline drug TNX-102 SL. The silver lining for Henry lies in the fact so far, the PTSD Program demonstrated proof-of-concept in the ATEase trial for treating military-related PTSD.

“We remain encouraged by the PTSD program, but will re-evaluate the program with greater scrutiny now that it is the prime program at TNXP,” he concludes.

According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Scott Henry is ranked #1,250 out of 4,147 analysts. Henry has a 40% success rate and yields 2.4% in his yearly returns. However, when recommending TNXP, Henry faces a loss of 21.6% in average profits on the stock.

TipRanks analytics exhibit TNXP as a Buy. Based on 3 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 1 rates a Buy on TNXP, while 2 maintain a Hold. The consensus price target stands at $10.00, marking a nearly 987% upside from where the stock is currently trading.

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