Can fish oil help prevent, or reduce the risk of heart disease? Ask Amarin (AMRN). The fish oil drug maker announced yesterday that its capsule Vascepa showed considerable benefits for heart patients in a clinical trial. Compared to a placebo, Vascepa significantly reduced the risk of serious cardiovascular events in trial results involving 8,179 statin-treated adults. Vascepa, is already approved by the FDA to cut triglycerides in patients in whom levels have risen above 500 milligrams per deciliter, triple normal.
Fein commented, “With REDUCEIT data in hand, we view Amarin’s market positioning as greatly strengthened. And regardless of whether an M&A scenario would materialize, we think Amarin has all the right cards needed to realize value for investors. As Amarin’s current market cap is approaching $4B, we think there is still room for greater upside while the downside risk is mitigated. In light of this positive development, we modified our market assumptions […] We think with the REDUCE-IT data, the probability of a take-out of Amarin is enhanced, given the prevalent interest of biopharmaceutical heavyweights in the CV space. Just to name a few, we believe Pfizer, Amgen, GSK, Regeneron would all strategically benefit from taking Vascepa in house considering their established footprint in the space.”
“We model for US commercial launch of Vascepa in high-TG patients (200-500mg/L) who are on statin therapy in 2019. We project 60.3 million high-TG patients in the US in 2019, among which 15% are on statin therapy. Among high-TG patients who are on statin therapy, we conservatively assume that 30% are eligible for receiving Vascepa. We model for 15% peak penetration in 2023,” the analyst added.
Net net, Wall Street agrees with Fein that this soaring drug maker is one to watch, as TipRanks analytics exhibit AMRN as a Strong Buy. Out of 3 analysts polled in the last 3 months, all 3 are bullish on Amarin stock. With a return potential of nearly 25%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $16.67. (See AMRN’s price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)